Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator

Minimum-norm confidence envelope strategies offer a nonparametric approach to constructing nonasymptotic, simultaneous confidence regions for band-limited functions, exploiting the theory of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While the finite-sample coverage guarantees of these envelopes have been established, their consistency has not been analyzed so far. In this paper, we study this construction, here termed the Minimum-Norm Confidence Envelope (MiNCE) framework, and establish the strong uniform consistency of the resulting bands, both for noise-free and noisy observation models, under mild assumptions on the measurement noises. We further extend this formulation to the frequency domain, deriving nonasymptotic, simultaneous, strongly uniformly consistent confidence bands for the smoothed spectra. Numerical experiments in nonparametric regression and spectral estimation empirically confirm our theoretical results, illustrating the contraction of the confidence envelopes toward the target function as the sample size increases.

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measurement noise, such as it is being symmetric or exchangeable. We show, by building on recent results from finite-sample system identification, that by perturbing the residuals in the gradient of the objective function, information can be extracted about the amount of uncertainty our model has. Particularly, we provide an algorithm to build exact, non-asymptotically guaranteed, distribution-free confidence regions for ideal, noise-free representations of the function we try to estimate. For the typical convex quadratic problems and symmetric noises, the regions are star convex centered around a given nominal estimate, and have efficient ellipsoidal outer approximations. Finally, we illustrate the ideas on typical kernel methods, such as LS-SVC, KRR, $\varepsilon$-SVR and kernelized LASSO.

Recent studies have reported $\textit{saturation effects}$ and $\textit{multiple descent behavior}$ in large dimensional kernel ridge regression (KRR). However, these findings are predominantly derived under restrictive settings, such as inner product kernels on sphere or strong eigenfunction assumptions like hypercontractivity. Whether such behaviors hold for other kernels remains an open question. In this paper, we establish a broad, new family of large dimensional kernels and derive the corresponding convergence rates of the generalization error. As a result, we recover key phenomena previously associated with inner product kernels on sphere, including: $i)$ the $\textit{minimax optimality}$ when the source condition $s\le 1$; $ii)$ the $\textit{saturation effect}$ when $s>1$; $iii)$ a $\textit{periodic plateau phenomenon}$ in the convergence rate and a $\textit {multiple-descent behavior}$ with respect to the sample size $n$.