CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency

When an LLM supplies an argument that a user could not readily construct, how can the user decide whether to accept its claim? Inspired by interactive proofs, we model human-LLM deliberation as an interaction between a prover with unrestricted internal search and a resource-bounded human verifier. The verifier requests and checks supporting details without access to the LLM's internal state. Passed checks accumulate evidence toward an acceptance threshold. We prove anytime-valid soundness against adaptive provers: the probability of ever accepting a false claim is at most a chosen error level, provided the task supplies bounds on false passes and human checking errors that remain valid after every relevant history. A finite-horizon completeness bound additionally requires bounds on the adequacy of honest responses and sufficient diagnostic progress. Further checks can strengthen the evidence for acceptance, but each requires another adequate response and reliable human effort. Whether this tradeoff permits certification depends on the verifier's effort budget, cognitive load, expertise, and fatigue. We identify conditions under which the supplied bounds certify a specified sequence of local checks but not a specified global check under the same resource budgets.

Can we trust evaluation scores to capture an LLM's true real-world performance? Certifiable evaluation answers this question by providing guarantee for LLM evaluation. In particular, existing methods sequentially curate evaluation samples and keep updating confidence intervals (CIs) that cover the true performance with high probability (e.g., 95%) until some conditions are satisfied, e.g., the CI width reaches a target precision. However, existing methods are not generally anytime-valid: the claimed coverage (e.g., 95%) may fail when CIs are repeatedly updated and used to decide when to stop, leaving a gap between theoretical rigor and practice. This paper bridges this gap by proposing Celeus, a Certifiable framework for Efficient LLM evaluation, which leverages E-processes to build anytime-valid CIs. Concretely, we propose signals that combine two ingredients: (i) Uncertainty-guided sampling to select informative samples for evaluation, and (ii) Surrogate-assisted approximations for unevaluated samples. We prove that such signals remain unbiased for the evaluation score conditional on the past, enabling statistically-grounded and anytime-valid $e$-process CIs. More importantly, the two ingredients reduce estimation variance and help reach the target precision with fewer evaluated samples. We also prove that CIs obtained by Celeus can shrink at a near-parametric rate up to logarithmic factors and analyze the oracle variance-optimal sampling rule that motivates the empirical uncertainty-guided one. Experiments show that Celeus reaches the target precision using 54-62% fewer evaluated samples than baselines, while preserving anytime-valid coverage.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in question answering (QA) systems, yet they may generate hallucinated or misaligned responses without reliable confidence estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) offers a natural basis for selective answering, where a system answers only when its prediction is deemed reliable and abstains otherwise. However, existing uncertainty scores for LLMs are often heuristic: a threshold chosen on such scores does not, by itself, provide statistical guarantees on the error rate among accepted answers. We propose CIC, a confidence-interval-based calibration framework that converts arbitrary uncertainty scores into risk-controlled selective answering rules. Given a held-out calibration set, CIC evaluates each generated response using an application-specific alignment criterion and associates it with an uncertainty score and a binary error label. For each candidate uncertainty threshold, CIC estimates the acceptance-conditioned error rate and constructs a high-probability upper confidence bound using either Hoeffding-style or Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals. It then selects the largest threshold whose upper bound is below a user-specified risk level $α$, thereby maximizing the answering rate subject to a finite-sample reliability constraint. Under exchangeability, CIC guarantees with probability at least $1-δ$ that the selected threshold, if non-null, controls the error rate among accepted answers at level $α$. We evaluate CIC on both closed-ended and open-ended QA benchmarks across seven LLMs and multiple uncertainty estimators. Experimental results show that CIC consistently achieves valid risk control while retaining strong answering efficiency, providing a practical and statistically grounded mechanism for deploying LLMs in reliability-sensitive QA workflows.