Cloud-top infrared observations reveal the four-dimensional precipitation structure

Reliable precipitation monitoring is essential for disaster risk reduction, water resources management, and agricultural decision-making. Multi-source satellite observations, particularly the combination of geostationary infrared and passive microwave measurements, have become a primary means of precipitation detection. Traditional multi-source satellite precipitation estimation methods remain computationally inefficient, and many deep learning methods lack the flexibility to incorporate new sensors without retraining the full model. Here we introduce PRISMA (Precipitation Inference from Satellite Modalities via generAtive modeling), a plug-and-play latent generative framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation. PRISMA learns an unconditional precipitation prior from IMERG Final fields and constrains it through independently trained, sensor-specific conditional branches, allowing new observation sources to be incorporated without retraining the generative backbone. Applied to FY-4B AGRI infrared and GPM GMI microwave observations, PRISMA improves Critical Success Index by up to 40.3% and reduces root-mean-square error by 22.6% relative to infrared-only estimation within microwave swaths, while also improving probabilistic skill and maintaining an average inference time of about 37 s. Independent rain-gauge validation across China confirms consistent gains, and typhoon case studies show that microwave conditioning restores eyewall and spiral rainband structures, reducing storm-core mean absolute error by up to 42.3%. PRISMA thus provides an extensible and efficient framework for multi-sensor precipitation estimation.

Most nowcasting systems, built on radar reflectivity, focus on current precipitation, ignoring the atmospheric precursors -- such as low-level convergence, turbulent eddies, and latent heating -- that offer a fleeting window to foresee storm birth. We introduce MeteoLogist, a physics-inspired radar intelligence framework that models the full life cycle of convection -- from its precursors to organized storm evolution. However, exploiting these precursors is non-trivial: they originate from multiple meteorological drivers -- thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical -- that evolve asynchronously (C1) and remain spatially fragmented (C2). To this end, MeteoLogist designs three tightly integrated components. The Physics-Tailored Encoders process radar echoes according to their intrinsic physical scales and semantics, forming thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical streams that capture distinct dynamical regimes. The Temporal-Phase Aligner addresses C1 by leveraging causal temporal attention to capture when and how different drivers interact and activate. The Cross-Field Spatial Aggregator addresses C2 through cross-regional fusion, aligning weak and scattered precursors across neighboring cells to expose upstream triggers and enforce spatial coherence. Evaluated on 3D-NEXRAD (2020--2022, US-wide), MeteoLogist boosts high-impact detection (CSI40) by +9.7% over strong baselines, and achieves a remarkable 37.67% gain during the storm-developing stage -- demonstrating true foresight in sensing storms before they appear. The code can be found in the supplementary material.

In precipitation forecasting, not only accuracy but also temporal resolution is critical. However, increasing temporal resolution is constrained by observational limitations and the computational cost of dense discrete modeling. To overcome this limitation, we reformulate precipitation forecasting as a continuous-time dynamical system and propose RainODE, a framework that models precipitation evolution in latent space using a Neural ODE. This formulation enables derivative-consistent temporal dynamics and captures the dominant large-scale advective motion of precipitation systems. Nevertheless, a purely deterministic ODE struggles to represent non-advective intensity changes such as localized growth, decay, and sub-grid variability, often leading to over-smoothed predictions. To address this issue, we introduce a stochastic source modeling module based on a Brownian Bridge formulation, which refines residual intensity variations and restores fine-grained structures while preserving advective consistency. By combining deterministic continuous dynamics with stochastic refinement, RainODE enables arbitrary-time inference while maintaining sharp predictions. Experiments on SEVIR and the newly introduced Radar-based Precipitation Integrated Dataset (RAPID) demonstrate consistent improvements across multiple temporal intervals and precipitation regimes. The code is available at https://github.com/SeongYE/RainODE.