NoisyCoconut: Counterfactual Consensus via Latent Space Reasoning
Authors: Michael Jerge, David Evans
Organizations: University of Virginia
Abstract
This paper presents NoisyCoconut, a novel inference-time method that enhances large language model (LLM) reliability by manipulating internal representations. Unlike fine-tuning methods that require extensive retraining, NoisyCoconut operates directly on model representations during inference and requires no retraining. Rather than training models to reason in latent space, we inject controlled noise into latent trajectories to generate diverse reasoning paths. Agreement among these paths provides a confidence signal, enabling models to abstain when uncertain. We demonstrate that this approach achieves effective coverage-accuracy tradeoffs across multiple reasoning benchmarks without requiring access to training data or modification of model parameters. This approach provides a practical pathway to improving the reliability of LLM outputs while maintaining compatibility with existing models. Our experiments show that unanimous agreement among noise-perturbed paths reduces error rates from 40-70% to below 15%, enabling models to exceed 95% accuracy on mathematical reasoning tasks through selective abstention.
Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently hallucinate, limiting their reliability in critical applications. Conformal Prediction (CP) addresses this by calibrating error rates on held-out data to provide statistically valid confidence guarantees. Recent work extends CP to LLM factuality to filter out risky claims, ensuring that hallucination rates remain below a user-specified level (e.g., 10%). While prior methods treat claims independently, Coherent Factuality extends to multi-step reasoning by representing outputs as dependency graphs and jointly validating claims with their logical ancestors. A key limitation is that Coherent Factuality is not differentiable, requiring hand-crafted scorers that at high reliability levels remove nearly 60% of true claims. We introduce Differentiable Coherent Factuality (DCF), a fully differentiable relaxation that enables learning improved scorers while provably recovering the original algorithm's guarantees. Experiments on two benchmark reasoning datasets demonstrate DCF achieves up to 141% improvement in claim retention while maintaining reliability guarantees, representing a significant step towards reliable conformal LLM systems.
Large-Language Models (LLMs) can be prone to flawed and unfaithful reasoning that decoding strategies like Self-Consistency (SC) fail to detect as they evaluate only final-answer agreement while ignoring the logical validity of intermediate steps. This raises three fundamental questions: How can we reliably quantify uncertainty in LLM reasoning? Can semantic, structural, and causal awareness select more faithful reasoning compared to naïve majority voting? and How robust is reasoning topology under adversarial conditions? To address these questions, we introduce GRAPHEVAL, a graph-based reasoning framework that re-frames uncertainty quantification (UQ) as a holistic reasoning fidelity problem. We propose a novel UQ metric, Graph Reasoning Coherence Score (GRCS), that quantifies semantic-structural consensus of the reasoning space and captures pathological mode collapse and confident hallucinations. We find that GRCS is the only metric that is consistently negatively correlated with reasoning faithfulness across both more capable and smaller models. Additionally, we introduce Graph Self-Consistency (GSC), a medoid-based decoding strategy that trades nominal accuracy for reasoning fidelity, exposing the degree to which SC is inflated by unfaithful lucky guesses in smaller models, while preserving or improving accuracy in more capable ones. Finally, through adversarial medoid ablation, we demonstrate that the GSC-selected path acts as a "load-bearing path" and forcing models away from it degrades reasoning faithfulness and, in targeted cases, causes drops in accuracy.
Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.