Probing Routing-Conditional Calibration in Attention-Residual Transformers
Authors: Wenhao Liang, Lin Yue, Wei Emma Zhang, Miao Xu, Mingyu Guo, Olaf Maennel, Weitong Chen
Organizations: Adelaide University · Australian Institute for Machine Learning (AIML), Adelaide University · The University of Queensland
Abstract
Post-hoc calibration is usually evaluated as a function of logits or softmax confidence alone, even as routing-augmented architectures increasingly accompany predictions with sample-specific internal routing traces and pair them with claims of calibration-relevant uncertainty. We ask a basic question: do these traces provide stable routing-specific evidence for post-hoc calibration beyond confidence? We study this in Attention-Residual transformers (Kimi Team, 2026) through a matched-confidence diagnostic suite that stratifies examples by routing-derived state, compares subgroup gaps against within-bin routing-permutation nulls, and evaluates matched post-hoc probes differing only in their auxiliary feature. Across our completed AR runs, scalar routing summaries do not provide stable evidence of routing-conditional miscalibration: weighted gaps remain small or seed-sensitive, and only 1 of 30 within-bin permutation tests rejects the conditional-null at α=0.05 (only on one seed; not stable across seeds in that cell). AR-CondCal, a minimal 2-D Nadaraya--Watson probe on confidence and routing-depth variance, lies within the seed-variance band of matched confidence-only and predictive-entropy controls and does not reliably improve worst-routing-tertile ECE; bandwidth-sensitivity checks (Scott multiples, CV-NLL, global-ECE oracle) do not change this. A full-vector MLP over (c,H1,…,HL) can appear to improve over a linear confidence baseline, but the apparent gain disappears once a capacity-matched confidence-only MLP is included as a control, and shuffled routing profiles achieve comparable performance. Apparent routing-aware calibration gains in this AR setting should not be read as internal-state calibration until matched-confidence, bandwidth, capacity, and permutation controls rule out common confounds.
Block Attention Residuals (Block AttnRes) by replace fixed additive residuals with a learned softmax over earlier depth-source representations, surfacing cross-layer routing as an inspectable tensor in the forward pass. This is a tempting interpretability target: information flow normally inferred indirectly is now directly observable. We ask whether such exposure suffices for mechanistic interpretation. We probe two same-scale (0.6B) Block AttnRes checkpoints under identical routing-ablation interventions: a vanilla Qwen3 inference-wrapped through a deterministic recency-bias schedule that the codebase admits as a routing-equivalent loading path, and a Block AttnRes Qwen3 trained from scratch with routing as part of optimisation. The wrapped baseline's routing weights are content-independent and reproduce the schedule's analytic prediction. The trained AttnRes checkpoint instead exhibits three localised routing motifs: an embedding-source pathway through early-layer MLP, a current-state pathway through early-layer attention and MLP, and an older-history pathway through late-layer attention. Beyond this stratification, we find a sharp dissociation between average routing mass and causal importance: in both sublayers, the largest mass slice is not the largest causal contribution, and one source family carries appreciable mass with no detectable causal role under intervention. Architectural exposure of routing is therefore necessary but not sufficient for mechanistic interpretation: structured depth routing emerges only when routing has been part of training, and even then, descriptive routing summaries should be treated as candidate hypotheses to be tested by causal interventions, not as evidence of mechanism in their own right.
Post-hoc sparse attention accelerates long-context prefill by routing each query to a small set of token-level interactions. Hard selection, however, assigns zero probability to every omitted chunk: a routing miss cannot be recovered, and a fixed expansion budget spends the same work on easy and ambiguous queries. We introduce Coarse-to-fine Error-aware Dynamic Attention Routing (CEDAR), a coarse-to-fine method that keeps the language model frozen while preserving global coverage. Each semantic chunk contributes a cheap key--value summary to a residual attention path; chunks with high estimated approximation error are then expanded to exact token attention. Exact and summarized contributions are combined in a single softmax normalization, so refinement replaces, rather than duplicates, coarse evidence. We derive an output-error bound governed by within-chunk key/value dispersion and use it to allocate a variable refinement budget. A controlled clustered-attention study shows that residual summaries reduce reconstruction error by more than 98% relative to hard dropping at equal exact-chunk budgets. Experiments on long-context benchmarks demonstrate that CEDAR recovers most of the quality lost by hard sparse routing while maintaining approximately 3× kernel speedup at 128K context.
Deep neural networks often produce poorly calibrated confidence estimates, overstating their certainty even when predictions are incorrect. Temperature Scaling remains the most widely used posthoc calibration method due to its simplicity and effectiveness, yet its global, uniform rescaling of logits fails to correct the highly heterogeneous structure of miscalibration observed across the confidence spectrum. In particular, the largest correctness confidence discrepancies arise in different quantile regions depending on the setting, low confidence predictions, where uncertainty matters most, tend to exhibit the largest correctness confidence discrepancies, which standard TS leaves largely unaddressed. We introduce Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling (QaTS), a simple and efficient post hoc calibration method that adapts the temperature as a function of a predictions empirical confidence quantile. By mapping confidences into the quantile space, QaTS normalizes the calibration problem, makes the structure of miscalibration explicit and enables a monotone temperature function that adapts across quantiles while leaving well calibrated high confidence predictions largely unchanged. preserving high confidence behavior. This quantile aware formulation aligns naturally with a reparameterized Expected Calibration Error (ECE) objective and yields a sample wise temperature that is robust across a variety of challenging scenarios, such as class imbalance and distributional shifts. Across a broad range of datasets, architectures, evaluation scenarios and diverse tasks, QaTS consistently, and substantially, outperforms state of the art post hoc calibration methods, delivering more reliable and trustworthy confidence estimates without modifying model predictions.
Omprakash Chakraborty, Leo Fillioux, Ismail Ben Ayed +1