A Comparative Study of Model Selection Criteria for Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression with genetic programming (GPSR) may suffer from overfitting and structural bloat, especially when noise is present. In this paper we evaluate description length (DL) and fractional Bayes factor (FBF) criteria as principled, data-efficient alternatives to heuristics for selecting compact expressions that generalise well. We implement DL using a Fisher-information-based parameter encoding and compare it to AIC and BIC across multiple datasets, including noisy synthetic benchmarks and real-world regression problems. We study three search/selection strategies: (i) multi-objective search for accuracy and program length followed by DL/FBF selection; (ii) multi-objective search using DL directly as an objective; and (iii) single-objective optimisation with DL/FBF as the fitness. Across datasets we find that DL/FBF post-selection improves test performance compared to AIC/BIC baseline and that BIC in combination with the same function complexity penalty from DL/FBF produces similar results. In contrast, using DL/FBF directly as a fitness function in single-objective GPSR frequently induces premature convergence to overly simple models. We conclude with practical guidance for using DL/FBF as robust model-selection tools in genetic programming workflows.

Symbolic regression via genetic programming routinely fails on small, wide datasets - a regime common in clinical-trial monitoring, biostatistics, and engineering pilot studies - by converging on bloated, overfit expressions that exploit correlation rather than prediction. We present Evolutional Math, an open-source genetic programming system that combines four design choices to yield compact, interpretable formulas in this regime. First, fitness is measured by R-squared on held-out cross-validation folds rather than Pearson correlation on the training set, eliminating single-variable shortcuts that correlate but mis-scale. Second, a multi-island architecture runs independent populations seeded with distinct operator subsets (algebraic, logarithmic, trigonometric, and full) with ring-topology migration every M generations, preventing the search from collapsing into one region of formula space. Third, a structural deduplication scheme treats formulas differing only in constants as equivalent, so the elite archive contains structurally distinct candidates rather than near-duplicate variants. Fourth, top-k individuals undergo numerical constant refinement via scipy L-BFGS-B after each migration phase, decoupling structure search from parameter fitting. We evaluate the system on synthetic benchmarks of the form log(x_i) * x_j / (x_k * c), trigonometric mixtures, and an anonymized clinical site-monitoring dataset with 24 rows and approximately 290 candidate numeric features. The system consistently recovers compact ground-truth structures with R-squared at or above 0.99 within tens of thousands of unique formula evaluations. A reference implementation is released under a noncommercial source-available license.

Symbolic regression (SR) with genetic programming (GP) aims to discover interpretable mathematical expressions directly from data. Despite its strong empirical success, the theoretical understanding of why GP-based SR generalizes beyond the training data remains limited. In this work, we provide a learning-theoretic analysis of SR models represented as expression trees. We derive a generalization bound for GP-style SR under constraints on tree size, depth, and learnable constants. Our result decomposes the generalization gap into two interpretable components: a structure-selection term, reflecting the combinatorial complexity of choosing an expression-tree structure, and a constant-fitting term, capturing the complexity of optimizing numerical constants within a fixed structure. This decomposition provides a theoretical perspective on several widely used practices in GP, including parsimony pressure, depth limits, numerically stable operators, and interval arithmetic. In particular, our analysis shows how structural restrictions reduce hypothesis-class growth while stability mechanisms control the sensitivity of predictions to parameter perturbations. By linking these practical design choices to explicit complexity terms in the generalization bound, our work offers a principled explanation for commonly observed empirical behaviors in GP-based SR and contributes towards a more rigorous understanding of its generalization properties.