Multistep Belief Space Dynamics Learning For Risk-Aware Control

Safe navigation in dynamic and uncertain environments often relies on accurate estimation of, or assumptions about, the true underlying uncertainty. However, accurately characterizing the true uncertainty distribution is often difficult due to limited data or imperfect information. An incorrect understanding of the uncertainty and its associated risk may lead to dangerous decisions even under high levels of risk aversion. To address this issue, we propose a risk-aware model predictive control (RA-MPC) framework that incorporates prediction sets to guarantee risk control below a user-specified threshold without requiring assumptions about the underlying uncertainty distribution. To generate the prediction sets, we develop a distribution-free risk quantification framework that extends conformal risk control (CRC) to general spectral risk measures. We then show that incorporating the prediction sets into the MPC framework provides statistical safety guarantees in terms of spectral risk constraint satisfaction even under uncertainty misspecification. We validate the proposed framework in simulated vehicle obstacle avoidance scenarios, demonstrating improved safety and reduced solve time compared to a baseline RA-MPC framework.

We investigate interactive trajectory planning subject to uncertainty in the decisions of surrounding agents. To control the ego-agent, we aim to first learn the decision distribution and solve a Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) problem. To account for errors in the learned distribution, we show that it is possible to utilize Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning in combination with Distributionally Robust (DR) optimization to obtain a solution which accounts for the errors induced by the learning model. The results indicate that our PAC learning-based DR-MPC framework provides a method to interpolate between a robust MPC and an omnipotent SMPC, based on the available number of samples.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is widely used for autonomous-vehicle (AV) motion planning, but its real-time applicability is often limited by the need for accurate models and online solution of nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems in dynamic road environments. Actor-critic reinforcement learning offers a promising alternative for online policy generation, yet its policy-learning process often lacks explicit control-theoretic structure. This article proposes a learning predictive control (LPC) framework with deep Koopman operators for efficient real-time motion planning under nonconvex constraints. To address nonlinear and uncertain vehicle dynamics, a deep-Koopman-based predictor is used to lift the system into an interpretable linear observable space in a data-driven manner. Unlike traditional MPC, which computes open-loop control sequences, the proposed LPC framework yields a closed-loop state-feedback policy within each prediction interval through receding-horizon actor-critic learning. To ensure safety under nonconvex environmental constraints, LPC constructs convex local surrogate representations of obstacles and defines corresponding potential-field functions. These functions and their gradients are directly embedded into the actor-critic structure, enabling efficient, safety-aware policy learning. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments on the HongQi-EHS3 platform demonstrate favorable performance in diverse obstacle-avoidance scenarios in terms of safety, computational efficiency, and driving comfort, compared with benchmark methods such as CBF-MPC and LMPCC.