In professional sports, a team has clinched the playoffs if they are guaranteed a postseason spot, regardless of the outcomes of any remaining games. As the season progresses, sports fans and other stakeholders are interested in precisely when, and under what conditions, their team will clinch the playoffs. In this paper, we investigate playoff clinching in the context of the National Hockey League (NHL), where it is computationally challenging to produce clinching scenarios due, in part, to complex tie-breakers. We present an algorithm that determines under which combinations of game outcomes in the next n days a team will clinch the playoffs (i.e., "n-day lookahead clinching"). Our approach is a custom tree search which employs various preprocessing techniques, pruning strategies, and node ordering heuristics to efficiently explore the space of possible outcomes. The tree search leverages a constraint programming (CP)-based subroutine for inference that determines if a team has clinched the playoffs for some snapshot in time of the regular season (i.e., "0-day lookahead clinching"). This CP subroutine aims to find a counter-example in which the team being evaluated is eliminated, taking into account qualification rules and the NHL's extensive list of tie-breakers. We validate the efficacy of our algorithm using hundreds of scenarios based on public NHL data for the seasons 2021-22 through 2024-25. The methods introduced can be readily extended to other metrics of interest, including mathematical proof of playoff elimination, clinching the President's Trophy, as well as clinching (or being eliminated from clinching) any other seed in the standings.
Testing is a major effort for the gaming industry, requiring a significant part of development budget and people power. We present a case study on a development version of the ice hockey game EA SPORTS NHL 26, for which human playtesters test the goalie AI for behavioral exploits. To reduce the effort of re-testing the goalie AI after every game or behavior modification in the development phase, we propose Reward-Adaptive Iterative Discovery (RAID), a novel approach to automatically find exploits using an iterative Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach that trains a population of goal scoring agents. While previous approaches can already successfully find exploits, RL algorithms tend to overfit to a single solution. We introduce a simple extension on top of existing RL algorithms, such that they find multiple diverse high-quality solutions. For our first deployment of this approach, within a single experiment we were able to find six hockey scoring exploit strategies that were qualitatively similar to those that playtesters had found in hours-long manual testing sessions.
Florian Fuchs, Jessy Gosselin-Grant, Boris Skuin +5
There has been significant recent progress in algorithms for approximation of Nash equilibrium in large two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games and exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games. While counterfactual regret minimization and fictitious play are scalable to large games and have convergence guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, they do not guarantee convergence to Nash equilibrium in multiplayer games. Recently, an approach has been presented for exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer imperfect-information games that solves a quadratically constrained program based on a nonlinear complementarity problem formulation derived from the sequence-form game representation. This formulation was solved using Gurobi's nonconvex quadratic solver, which employs spatial branch-and-bound to iteratively refine variable bounds by solving convex relaxations of bilinear terms via McCormick envelopes. During presolve, Gurobi introduces auxiliary variables and, in some cases, binary variables, leading to an internal MIQCP reformulation. This approach was demonstrated to outperform prior algorithms from the Gambit software suite and quickly solve three-player Kuhn poker after removal of dominated actions; however, the algorithm was not able to solve the full version of the game within 24 hours. In this paper, we derive finite bounds on slack and multiplier variables in the nonlinear complementarity formulation. These bounds strengthen the convex relaxations used within spatial branch-and-bound and lead to substantial computational improvements. We demonstrate the impact of the proposed bounds on exact Nash equilibrium computation in three-player Kuhn poker.
Many two-player zero-sum games admit not a unique Nash equilibrium but a convex set of them: a polytope of profiles that all share the minimax value V* yet prescribe different behaviour. Standard solvers each converge to some equilibrium and are treated as interchangeable. We ask whether they instead select different members of the Nash set, systematically as a function of the algorithm rather than the seed. Using a tabular, exactly solvable testbed of six games with analytically known Nash sets -- including a two-dimensional Nash polytope and Kuhn poker -- we find that (i) selection is determined by the algorithm, not the seed, but families differ only on asymmetric Nash sets; (ii) regularized last-iterate methods (R-NaD, magnetic mirror descent) select the maximum-entropy member, the information projection of their uniform reference onto the Nash set -- exactly on the 2-D polytope and at 99.7% of maximum entropy in Kuhn -- while regret-averaging methods (CFR, CFR+, fictitious play) drift to a lower-entropy face; we confirm this on a randomized 180-game ensemble, where R-NaD attains the maximum-entropy member in 100% of converged games while CFR+ sits strictly below it in 94% (paired Wilcoxon p < 10^-27); (iii) the selected member has downstream consequences against sub-optimal opponents that scale with sequential/hidden-information structure but stay bounded -- in Kuhn the max-entropy member is a strictly better hedge, whereas on the matrix games the members differ without either dominating. We also report two negative results correcting common intuitions: removing CFR's positive-orthant (max(R,0)) projection does not eliminate boundary drift; and R-NaD's selection is anchor-following, not initialization-independent. We state the maximum-entropy / I-projection characterization as a strongly data-supported conjecture, checked throughout against analytic ground truth.