Action-Conditioned Risk Gating for Safety-Critical Control under Partial Observability

Modern world models are becoming too complex to admit explicit dynamical descriptions. We study safety-critical contextual control, where a Planner must optimize a task objective using only feasibility samples from a black-box Simulator, conditioned on a context signal $ξ_t$. We develop a sample-based Penalized Predictive Control (PPC) framework grounded in online Riemannian optimization, in which the Simulator compresses the feasibility manifold into a score-based density $\hat{p}(u \mid ξ_t)$ that endows the action space with a Riemannian geometry guiding the Planner's gradient descent. The barrier curvature $κ(ξ_t)$, the minimum curvature of the conditional log-density $-\ln\hat{p}(\cdot\midξ_t)$, governs both convergence rate and safety margin, replacing the Lipschitz constant of the unknown dynamics. Our main result is a contextual safety bound showing that the distance from the true feasibility manifold is controlled by the score estimation error and a ratio that depends on $κ(ξ_t)$, both of which improve with richer context. Simulations on a dynamic navigation task confirm that contextual PPC substantially outperforms marginal and frozen density models, with the advantage growing after environment shifts.

Many safety-critical control systems operate under latent uncertainty that sensors cannot resolve at decision time. Such uncertainty, arising from unknown physical properties, disturbances, or unobserved geometry, affects dynamics, task feasibility, and safety margins. Standard methods optimize expected performance and offer limited protection against rare but severe outcomes, while robust formulations treat uncertainty conservatively without exploiting its probabilistic structure. We consider systems with measured state and an unknown, time-invariant parameter represented by a belief distribution. We propose a risk-sensitive belief-space Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) controller that plans under this belief, regularizes performance using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and imposes a CVaR constraint on a trajectory safety margin over the horizon. For the exact risk-constrained formulation underlying this controller, we establish three properties: (1) the CVaR constraint implies a probabilistic safety guarantee, (2) the controller recovers the risk-neutral optimum as the objective risk weight tends to zero, and (3) a union-bound argument extends the per-horizon guarantee to cumulative safety over repeated solves. In contact-rich MuJoCo simulations of vision-guided dexterous stowing, where a manipulator inserts a grasped object into an occupied slot with pose uncertainty exceeding prescribed lateral clearance requirements, our method achieves 82% success with zero contact violations at high risk aversion, compared with 55% and 50% for a risk-neutral configuration and a chance-constrained baseline, both of which incur nonzero exterior contact forces. Project page: https://clintonenwerem.com/belief-cvar-mppi/.

In many real-world planning tasks, agents must tackle uncertainty about the environment's state and variability in the outcomes of any chosen policy. We address both forms of uncertainty as a first step toward safer algorithms in partially observable settings. Specifically, we extend Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL)-which models the entire return distribution for fully observable domains-to Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), allowing an agent to learn the distribution of returns for each conditional plan. Concretely, we introduce new distributional Bellman operators for partial observability and prove their convergence under the supremum p-Wasserstein metric. We also propose a finite representation of these return distributions via psi-vectors, generalizing the classical alpha-vectors in POMDP solvers. Building on this, we develop Distributional Point-Based Value Iteration (DPBVI), which integrates psi-vectors into a standard point-based backup procedure-bridging DistRL and POMDP planning. By tracking return distributions, DPBVI lays the foundation for future risk-sensitive control in domains where rare, high-impact events must be carefully managed. We provide source code to foster further research in robust decision-making under partial observability.