Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Diffusion Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) owe much of their success to next-token prediction (NTP), but their autoregressive (AR) structure requires slow, sequential token generation. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce diffusion-augmented LLMs, a new class of models that defines an AR model distribution while using diffusion to draw multiple tokens in parallel from that distribution. We decouple the parameters of these models into two sets: AR weights, trained using the standard NTP objective, and lightweight diffusion weights, trained to generate multiple tokens simultaneously. The diffusion weights are learned through a simple Diffusion Distillation phase that adds negligible overhead to existing LLM training pipelines. We also introduce $Ψ$-Spec, a family of samplers that enables lossless acceleration and inference-time scaling at a fixed context length. Unlike speculative decoding, our method requires no separate draft model. Unlike diffusion LLMs (d-LLMs), it accelerates generation without sacrificing the quality of the underlying AR model. The resulting models, called Uno, can be trained from scratch or built by augmenting existing open-weight AR LLMs. Uno achieves higher throughput than leading speculative-decoding methods at every evaluated batch size and delivers up to $3\times$ speedups over the base AR model, including at the largest batch size supported by the device. Notably, our 8B Uno model outperforms the leading open d-LLM, the 26B DiffusionGemma, and the proprietary Mercury 2 across all evaluated benchmarks in agentic tool use, coding, and long-context reasoning. We release code and checkpoints at: https://s-sahoo.github.io/uno/

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs are just unsupervised clustering algorithms. We demonstrate that most current approaches inherently quantify the internal consistency of the model's generations rather than their external correctness. Consequently, current methods are fundamentally blind to factual reality and fail to detect ``confident hallucinations,'' where models exhibit high confidence in stable but incorrect answers. Therefore, the current UQ methods may create a deceptive sense of safety when deploying the models with uncertainty. In detail, we identify three critical pathologies resulting from this dependence on internal state: a hyperparameter sensitivity crisis that renders deployment unsafe, an internal evaluation cycle that conflates stability with truth, and a fundamental lack of ground truth that forces reliance on unstable proxy metrics to evaluate uncertainty. To resolve this impasse, we advocate for a paradigm shift to UQ and outline a roadmap for the research community to adopt better evaluation metrics and settings, implement mechanism changes for native uncertainty, and anchor verification in objective truth, ensuring that model confidence serves as a reliable proxy for reality.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across diverse tasks, but they often generate responses that appear plausible while being factually incorrect. This problem is compounded by the lack of explicit uncertainty estimates, which makes it difficult for users to judge the reliability of model outputs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically rely on indirect signals, such as entropy across sampled generations. These signals can be difficult to interpret and do not fully leverage the model's ability to assess its own uncertainty. We propose a simple yet effective self-assessment method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs. Our approach groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, converts them into answer options in a structured multiple-choice question, and uses the probability assigned by the LLM to each option as a confidence estimate. Experiments across multiple models and datasets show that our method consistently outperforms baseline approaches. Notably, it achieves competitive performance with as few as two additional samples, demonstrating both its effectiveness and efficiency.