An Analytical Multiple Criteria Framework for Temporal and Dynamic Business-to-Business Customer Segmentation in Manufacturing

Transaction propensity prediction in B2B e commerce presents unique challenges distinct from B2C contexts, primarily due to the heterogeneous procurement behaviors of organizational entities, which violate SMOTE's implicit assumption of within class feature homogeneity. Specifically, B2B buyers exhibit multi modal procurement cycles that render linear interpolation between minority class samples structurally invalid, producing synthetic data that does not represent real purchasing behavior. This paper introduces a production deployed propensity modeling framework designed to address these complexities through two primary contributions. First, we replace conventional SMOTE based augmentation with a synthetic data generation approach leveraging Diverse Counterfactual Explanations (DiCE). This method produces minority class samples with superior distributional fidelity compared to SMOTE, as validated through quantitative proximity analysis and UMAP cluster visualization. Second, we adapt the PyPARC piecewise affine classification framework to generate calibrated propensity probabilities, facilitating the interpretable segmentation of customers into actionable risk tiers. Evaluated on two years of longitudinal data from a large scale B2B e commerce platform with a 1 to 9 class imbalance ratio, the proposed architecture achieves 93.1% precision at a decision threshold of 0.8, a 9.2 percentage point improvement over SMOTE based baselines at the same threshold (83.9%), and a 26.1 point improvement over SMOTE at threshold 0.7 (66.04%), demonstrating consistent superiority across operating points. These results demonstrate the framework's efficacy in enabling high precision marketing campaigns with significant improvements in customer activation and return on investment.

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

Wafer fabrication exhibits unique characteristics, including reentrant process flows, variable bottlenecks, and highly variable process conditions. In order to identify the most severe bottleneck at each moment in time for semiconductor wafer fabrication, this research presents the Dynamic Multi-Criteria Bottleneck Severity Index (DMBSI), a new, data-driven methodology for analysing multiple diagnostic signals of cycle time to changes in process parameters, and the impact of reworks on cycle time in order to generate an interpretable, unified measure of bottleneck severity. The experimental validation of DMBSI was conducted using Manufacturing Execution System (MES) logs collected from 22 wafer production lots at a commercial 200 mm wafer fabrication line operated by Seagate Technology. Using 5-fold cross-validation, the GA-optimised DMBSI achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.80 with observed cycle-time contributions, representing an 8.1% improvement over the expert heuristic baseline (r = 0.74) and substantially outperforming the Theory of Constraints (TOC; r = 0.60) and Value Stream Mapping (VSM; r = -0.30). Furthermore, the unique time-windowed component of DMBSI enabled the identification of temporal bottleneck migration patterns, which shifted from the dominant constraints associated with dielectric deposition steps in the early production windows to those associated with over- and under-inspection in the later production windows. The integrated what-if counterfactual analysis demonstrated that a 50% reduction in waiting time at the top-ranked bottleneck step would reduce the mean cycle time by 7.2%, with the top five bottleneck steps offering a combined potential reduction of approximately 19%.