Historical Knowledge Graphs for Global Maritime Estimated Time of Arrival
Authors: Neofytos Dimitriou
Organizations: Maritime Digitalization Centre Cyprus Marine and Maritime Institute Larnaca 6300, Cyprus
Abstract
Accurate vessel estimated-time-of-arrival forecasts are critical for port operations and decarbonization, yet global-scale travel-time prediction remains difficult without costly contextual data. Herein, I present a methodology for constructing a historical maritime knowledge graph using only Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. First, segmented trajectories are extracted from noisy AIS data using a Gaussian-mixture-model-based preprocessing pipeline. The graph is then constructed by iteratively processing the trajectories and storing speed distributions stratified by vessel type, time of travel, and direction of travel; the resulting global graph comprises 5,433 geohash-3 nodes and 12,334 edges. The graph can be queried to retrieve travel-time predictions between any two location via a hierarchical, priority-based system that uses historical statistics with principled fallback. On a temporally held-out test set, median RMSE is 22.75 min (segment-level) and 30.90 min (trajectory-level), with 69.1% of trajectories within 20% of actual arrival time. On a second external test set, median RMSE is 27.36 min (segment-level) and 37.46 min (trajectory-level), with 62.1% of trajectories within 20%. These results corroborate the promise of our method, enabling global travel-time prediction and providing a strong foundation for just-in-time arrival planning and emissions reduction.
Vessel trajectory prediction is important for intelligent shipping, maritime surveillance, and navigation safety. However, existing public maritime AIS resources are often limited by inconsistent forecasting protocols, uneven data quality, and the lack of benchmark-ready contextual annotations, which hinder fair comparison and context-aware modeling. To address this gap, we present EnvShip-Bench, a unified benchmark for short-term vessel trajectory prediction built from large-scale raw AIS data from the Danish Maritime Authority (DMA) and NOAA through a common processing pipeline. EnvShip-Bench adopts a standardized forecasting protocol with 10 minutes of observation, 10 minutes of prediction, and 20-second sampling in vessel-centric local metric coordinates. Beyond the large-scale core benchmark, it provides a quality-first compact subset for efficient and reproducible experimentation, together with synchronized environmental and nearby-vessel context extensions. As a result, EnvShip-Bench supports trajectory-only, environment-aware, and interaction-aware forecasting under a unified evaluation framework. Extensive benchmark statistics and analysis demonstrate that EnvShip-Bench offers a standardized, extensible, and context-aware foundation for maritime trajectory forecasting research.
Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient maritime operations, enabling collision avoidance and supporting route optimization. Although memory-augmented neural networks have recently shown strong performance in pedestrian and road-vehicle trajectory prediction by selectively retrieving relevant information from an external memory, their potential for vessel trajectory prediction remains underexplored. This paper presents an empirical investigation of memory-based trajectory prediction using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Experiments on data from the Gulf of Mexico and the New York Bight demonstrate consistent and substantial performance gains over a range of deep learning baselines that do not incorporate an external memory.
Accurate long-term trajectory prediction for maritime vessels is essential for safety and logistical efficiency. While deep learning models, particularly Transformers, have shown promise in processing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, they often struggle with the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention and the loss of accuracy over extended forecasting horizons. This study proposes TempTPI, a novel prediction framework that integrates an Informer-based encoder with a multi-channel temporal encoding mechanism. The Informer architecture leverages a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead and focus on the most significant dependencies, while the temporal encoder utilizes Fourier-like frequency expansions to capture cyclic patterns (hourly, daily, and seasonal) in vessel behavior. We evaluate our model against the state-of-the-art TPTrans architecture using AIS data from Danish waters. Experimental results demonstrate that TempTPI consistently outperforms existing methods across prediction windows of 1 to 5 hours. Notably, at a 5-hour horizon, the proposed model achieves a 55% improvement in Mean Squared Error (MSE), offering a robust solution for long-range maritime situational awareness.
Kevin Ferneding, Veronika Lietavcova, Aleksandra M. Blachowiak +1