Organizations: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA · Department of Health Services Administration, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA · Department of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Heersink School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA · Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
Overcrowding in emergency departments (ED) remains a persistent operational challenge worldwide, causing delays in care delivery and downstream congestion. ED boarding time, defined as the duration admitted patients remain in the ED while awaiting inpatient bed placement, is a key indicator of this congestion. Predicting ED boarding time in advance enables proactive operational decision making before congestion escalates. We developed and evaluated a multi-horizon time series forecasting framework to predict ED boarding time at 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24-hour horizons. Real-world data from a university-affiliated urban hospital in the United States were utilized and integrated with external contextual data sources, including weather, holidays, and major local events. Decomposition-based Linear (DLinear) and Normalization-based Linear (NLinear) time series forecasting deep learning models showed superior performance across multiple horizons. Models were also evaluated under extreme congestion scenarios characterized by elevated boarding times. In addition, a Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) web application prototype was developed to support translation of the forecasting framework into practice through integrated data ingestion, forecast visualization, experimentation, and retraining.