We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the squared parameter norm, V_star is an architecture-dependent threshold, and kappa_LL absorbs the AdamW correction to the clean-SGD contraction rate 2 eta lambda. Calibrating (kappa_LL, V_star) on a single hyperparameter cell predicts grokking delays on 26 held-out runs with MAPE 17.7% over a 41x delay range; the law generalises to MLPs (MAPE 18.0%, N=34) and degrades to 23.3% on cross-task extension (N=46, 43.5x range), with a structured residual in which V_star / V_mem stays comparatively stable within architecture (CV about 14% on the 1L transformer). First-passage of V_t is necessary but not sufficient. A quantile-margin theorem establishes that positive delay requires both norm separation V_mem > V_post and angular reachability of a threshold alpha_star = arcsin(C / V_T_mem^(1/2)), where C is computable from the empirical NTK feature map and the validation-margin quantile. Calibrating C on modulus p=89 predicts alpha_star = 47.2 degrees at p=97 (observed 47.8 degrees, error 1.3%) as a prior cross-cell prediction. Causal interventions that freeze the norm or remove weight decay at memorisation eliminate grokking (0/6 vs. 3/3 baseline), trapping the angular displacement near 12 degrees. kappa_LL is empirically measured per architecture rather than derived from (beta_1, beta_2, epsilon); within-architecture CV stays at most 15% across four architectures, but values differ by about 2x between architectural variants beyond depth alone. Empirical scope is algorithmic tasks (modular arithmetic, sparse parity) under AdamW; whether the law transfers to natural-language scale models is open.
Grokking is the delayed onset of generalization in neural networks, arising long after they fit the training data. Whether the weight norm causes this delay is disputed: some studies report a critical norm at the transition, others observe grokking with no fixed norm at all. We settle this by intervening on the norm during training rather than only observing it. Under free training with weight decay, networks grok when the weight norm reaches a value Wc that varies little across seeds and learning rates (CV 1 to 2 percent) and grows with the modular base as a power law. When we instead clamp the norm to a fixed multiple rho of Wc and hold it there, the network still groks, but the delay follows T_grok proportional to exp(alpha rho). One exponent, alpha near 7.5, fits this delay across four moduli (R^2 = 0.996). Over the swept ranges the held norm moves the delay by about 19x and the learning rate by only about 2x, and holding the norm above Wc slows grokking rather than preventing it. A final LayerNorm removes the dependence by decoupling weight scale from the network function; without it the exponential law returns. This pinned-norm delay is the exponential counterpart to the logarithmic delay predicted for a freely contracting norm.
Truong Xuan Khanh, Doan Hoang Viet, Luu Duc Trung +1
Delayed generalization (\ie~grokking) refers to the phenomenon in which a neural network fits its training data early in training but only begins to generalize after a prolonged delay, often through an abrupt transition. Despite extensive empirical study, its underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we first theoretically characterize a shell--core topological configuration of the reachable solution space induced by Adam's optimization dynamics with weight-shrinkage regularization, supported by empirical evidence. This optimization-induced topological configuration gives rise to grokking. In model's parameter space, random initialization solutions concentrate on a thin outer spherical shell, enclosing another spherical shell of memorization solutions, which in turn contains a core corresponding to the generalization solutions. Leveraging stopping-time theory, we then analyze the geometry of this topological configuration and the solution transition time at which optimization trajectories escape the memorization manifold and first reach the boundary of the generalization manifold. Our theoretical analysis derives grokking scaling laws for the learning rate, batch size, and ℓ2 regularization coefficient, which are further validated through experiments and shown to recover results from prior literature.
Grokking is the delayed generalisation phenomenon where a transformer trained on modular arithmetic abruptly transitions from near-chance to near-perfect validation accuracy. It has been attributed to a Fourier-based algorithmic circuit, but its timing, causal structure, and controllability remain poorly understood. We introduce the Frequency Synchronization Degree (FSD), a normalised, permutation-tested metric for Fourier circuit synchronisation requiring no prior knowledge of the circuit. Across nine modular addition configurations (five primes, three seeds), FSD reaches its post-grokking level 500 to 3000 steps before grokking (mean lead 1722 steps, every configuration positive, sign-test p approx 0.004), and synchronises before a restricted-logit loss baseline in all nine cases, making it the earliest available predictor. We give direct causal evidence that the inter-phase gap is a regularisation phenomenon: forking training at the FSD-ceiling step and varying weight decay lambda produces monotonically earlier grokking, with delta-t proportional to 1/lambda. This law replicates across three primes (R-squared 0.89 to 0.99 on seed-averaged delta-t); per-run R-squared is unstable due to the chaotic transition, so we report error bars rather than single runs. Grokking occurs at a near-constant memorisation norm across lambda, grounding the constant in a threshold mechanism. This is not an artefact of applying a Fourier detector to a Fourier circuit: on the non-abelian group S5, a basis-faithful generalisation of FSD precedes grokking on all six seeds, while the original Fourier FSD does not. Using the FSD ceiling to schedule a weight-decay increase also accelerates grokking over a fixed schedule without destabilising training. An attention-only variant groks with a strong FSD precursor while an MLP-only model never groks.