A Unified Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Explainable Artificial Intelligence: A Case Study in Power Quality Disturbance Classification

Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness of this distribution, they often provide limited insight into how predictive uncertainty is structured and aggregated, resulting in weak interpretability. We introduce the courtroom analogy, which conceptualizes uncertainty-aware classification as a structured debate among class-specific advocates. Each advocate forms a probabilistic opinion, and a final verdict is reached by aggregating these opinions using input-dependent plausibility weights. In this framework, each advocate's opinion is modeled as a Dirichlet distribution whose concentration parameter is decomposed into shared evidence and class-specific advocacy. This yields a structured mixture of Dirichlet distributions with semantically interpretable parameters. To instantiate this formulation, we propose Mixture of Dirichlet EXperts (MoDEX), a single-pass neural architecture that predicts the courtroom parameters, enabling efficient and expressive UQ while explicitly modeling uncertainty aggregation. We demonstrate that MoDEX enjoys strong theoretical properties and achieves state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse benchmarks, yielding interpretable uncertainty estimates with meaningful semantics.

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act (Regulation 2024/1689), fully applicable to high-risk systems from August 2026, creates urgent demand for AI architectures that are simultaneously trustworthy, transparent, and feasible to deploy on resource-constrained edge devices. Brain-like neural networks built on the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) formalism have re-emerged as a credible alternative to backpropagation-driven deep learning. They deliver state-of-the-art unsupervised representation learning, neuromorphic-friendly sparsity, and existing FPGA implementations that target edge deployment. Despite this momentum, no systematic framework exists for explaining BCPNN decisions -- a gap the present paper fills. We argue that BCPNN is, in the sense of Rudin's interpretable-by-design agenda, an inherently transparent model whose architectural primitives map directly onto established explainable-AI (XAI) families. We make four contributions. First, we propose the first XAI taxonomy for BCPNN. It maps weights, biases, hypercolumn posteriors, structural-plasticity usage scores, attractor dynamics, and input-reconstruction populations onto attribution, prototype, concept, counterfactual, and mechanistic explanation modalities. Second, we introduce sixteen architecture-level explanation primitives (P1--P16), several without analogue in standard ANNs. We provide closed-form algorithms for computing each from quantities the model already maintains. Third, we introduce five design-time Configuration-as-Explanation primitives (Config-P1 to Config-P5) that treat BCPNN hyperparameter choices as an auditable pre-deployment explanation artifact. Fourth, we sketch a roadmap for integration into industrial IoT deployments and discuss EU AI Act alignment, edge feasibility, and Industry 5.0 implications.

Explainable AI (XAI) techniques are increasingly important for the validation and responsible use of modern deep learning models, but are difficult to evaluate due to the lack of good ground-truth to compare against. We propose a framework that serves as a quantifiable metric for the quality of XAI methods, based on continuous input perturbation. Our metric formally considers the sufficiency and necessity of the attributed information to the model's decision-making, and we illustrate a range of cases where it aligns better with human intuitions of explanation quality than do existing metrics. To exploit the properties of this metric, we also propose a novel XAI method, considering the case where we fine-tune a model using a differentiable approximation of the metric as a supervision signal. The result is an adapter module that can be trained on top of any black-box model to output causal explanations of the model's decision process, without degrading model performance. We show that the explanations generated by this method outperform those of competing XAI techniques according to a number of quantifiable metrics.