Diverse Yet Consistent: Context-Guided Diffusion with Energy-Based Joint Refinement for Multi-Agent Motion Prediction
Authors: Lei Chu, Yuhuan Zhao
Organizations: University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Abstract
Deepgenerative models havebecomeapromisingapproach for human motion prediction due to their ability to capture multimodal distributions and represent diverse human be haviors. However, generating predictions that are both di verse and jointly consistent among interacting agents re mains challenging. In addition, most existing approaches are primarily evaluated using single-agent (marginal) met rics, which fail to fully reflect the joint dynamics of multi agent interactions. We propose a diffusion-based frame work that improves multi-agent motion prediction by lever aging rich contextual information from historical trajecto ries. This information is incorporated through a guidance mechanism to enhance the diversity and expressiveness of predicted motions. To further enforce interaction consis tency, we introduce an energy-based formulation that re fines the joint trajectory distribution while preserving the plausibility of individual trajectories. Extensive experi ments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing methods. No tably, our approach substantially improves both marginal (ADE/FDE) and joint (JADE/JFDE) metrics on ETH/UCY over strong marginal baselines. Compared with prior joint prediction methods, it delivers significant gains in marginal metrics while maintaining competitive joint performance.
Generative motion prediction must satisfy three simultaneous requirements for real-world autonomy: high accuracy, diverse multimodal futures, and strictly bounded latency. Diffusion models meet the first two but violate the third, requiring tens to hundreds of denoising steps. We identify a conditioning strategy that resolves this tension: \textit{single-step integration is accurate when the underlying transport problem is local}. A model that must both discover the correct behavioral mode and traverse a long displacement in one step accumulates large discretization errors; conditioning the base distribution to lie near plausible futures reduces the problem to short-range refinement, the regime where a single Euler step suffices. We instantiate this \emph{local transport conditioning} in FlowS, a conditional flow matching framework with two mechanisms. First, an online, scene-conditioned learned prior emits K calibrated anchor trajectories per agent, each already near a plausible future, converting mode discovery into local correction. Second, a step-consistent displacement field enforces semigroup self-consistency, guaranteeing that a single step inherits multi-step accuracy. Crucially, anchoring this field at learned priors along straight-line paths yields a {stable, low-variance} training target, unlike prior self-consistency methods that suffer from {high-variance bootstrap} signals on curved diffusion paths. On the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, FlowS achieves state-of-the-art Soft mAP {(0.4804) and mAP (0.4703) with ensemble at 75,FPS} with single-step inference, demonstrating that local transport conditioning makes one-step generative motion prediction practical for safety-critical autonomy. Code and pretrained models will be released upon acceptance.
Diffusion models for multi-agent trajectory prediction are limited by iterative denoising, which causes inference latency that hinders their use in time-critical settings like autonomous driving. Fast-sampling variants using DDIM and informed initial noise distributions partially alleviate this issue, but they either fail to achieve true single-step generation or are constrained by the chosen noise distribution. Consistency Models (CMs) offer high-quality one-step generation by mapping noise directly to data, but are difficult to train from scratch. We propose ECTraj, an enhanced CM pipeline with improved training and conditional generation for trajectory prediction. Our framework extends the student-teacher consistency training scheme: the student produces standard outputs, while the teacher explicitly fuses its predictions with parts of the ground truth to give stronger supervision. We also exploit CMs' direct denoising for top-K multi-shot generation during training. Combining conditional generation with this enhanced consistency objective yields faster inference and improved prediction accuracy, establishing competitive new benchmarks on the large-scale Argoverse 2 dataset.
3D multi-person motion prediction requires modeling both individual kinematics and inter-person interactions. While Flow Matching is effective for multi-hypothesis generation to improve prediction accuracy, directly predicting skeletal sequences from pure noise often compromises structural consistency and introduces unreliable cross-agent interactions during early noise-dominated integration steps. To address this, we propose a Prior-Guided Residual Flow Matching framework. First, a Deterministic Coarse Prior (DCP) establishes a kinematic anchor, formulating the generative process as a conditional flow over motion residuals to simplify the generative objective and preserve structural stability. Second, a Dynamic Cross-Interaction (DCI) mechanism temporally synchronizes inter-agent message-passing with the integration progress, ensuring the extraction of reliable social contexts and improving multi-person motion fidelity. Finally, a decoupled joint-motion architecture with bidirectional fusion effectively preserves fine-grained kinematic coherence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy across multiple datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/Wei-Wei-a/Residual-Flow-Matching-with-Dynamic-Cross-Interaction-for-3D-Multi-Person-Motion-Prediction.