PhenoYieldNet: Learning Crop-Aware Phenological Responses for Multi-Crop Yield Prediction
Authors: Yu Luo, Xiaogang Zhu, Shan Zeng, Wei Xiang, Thomas Francis Bishop, Zhiyong Wang, Kun Hu
Organizations: School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia · School of Computer Science and Information Technology, Adelaide University, SA 5005, Australia · College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan, China · School of Computing, La Trobe University, NSW 2000, Australia · School of Science, Edith Cowan University, WA 6027, Australia
Accurate crop yield prediction is crucial for sustainable agriculture and global food security. While existing methods are predominantly developed for single-crop prediction, they often struggle to generalize across diverse crop types, without addressing the unique crop phenological responses that are dynamically modulated by complex weather patterns. In this paper, we propose PhenoYieldNet, a multi-crop yield prediction framework that learns crop-specific phenology by explicitly modeling their responses with temporal drivers. Specifically, we develop a crop-aware temporal decoder consisting of a Crop Phenology Bank (CPB) and a Crop Phenology Attention (CPA) module. The CPB integrates a set of learnable embeddings, which leverage a query to guide the CPA module to learn the most relevant phenology patterns for the specific crop. And the CPA module explicitly captures multi-scale trend and variation components to construct temporal contexts, enabling the model to dynamically adjust the attention across different phenological stages. To learn robust and generalizable features for multi-crop prediction, the encoder is initialized with a pre-trained foundation model, and further adapted via a self-supervised Temporal Contrastive Adaptation strategy to align with agricultural temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments conducted on multi-crop datasets indicate that our proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities across different regions and crops.
Crop yield prediction is one of the most important challenge, which is crucial to world food security and policy-making decisions. The conventional forecasting techniques are limited in their accuracy with reference to the fact that they utilize static data sources that do not reflect the dynamic and intricate relationships that exist between the variables of the environment over time [5,13]. This paper presents Attention-Based Multi-Modal Deep Learning Framework (ABMMDLF), which is suggested to be used in high-accuracy spatio-temporal crop yield prediction. The model we use combines multi-year satellite imagery, high-resolution time-series of meteorological data and initial soil properties as opposed to the traditional models which use only one of the aforementioned factors [12, 21]. The main architecture involves the use of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to extract spatial features and a Temporal Attention Mechanism to adaptively weight important phenological periods targeted by the algorithm to change over time and condition on spatial features of images and video sequences. As can be experimentally seen, the proposed research work provides an R^2 score of 0.89, which is far better than the baseline models do.
Accurate prediction of grape phenology is essential for timely vineyard management decisions, such as scheduling irrigation and fertilization, to maximize crop yield and quality. While traditional biophysical models calibrated on historical field data can be used for season-long predictions, they lack the precision required for fine-grained vineyard management. Deep learning methods are a compelling alternative but their performance is hindered by sparse phenology datasets, particularly at the cultivar level. We propose a hybrid modeling approach that combines multi-task learning with a recurrent neural network to parameterize a differentiable biophysical model. By using multi-task learning to predict the parameters of the biophysical model, our approach enables shared learning across cultivars while preserving biological structure, thereby improving the robustness and accuracy of predictions. Empirical evaluation using real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrates that our method significantly outperforms both conventional biophysical models and baseline deep learning approaches in predicting phenological stages, as well as other crop state variables such as cold-hardiness and wheat yield.
We present a real-world case study of multi-task learning (MTL) for temporal process modeling from limited data with temporally sparse labels. Specifically, we investigate multi-task learning for the important agricultural problem of predicting grape cold hardiness, which is the temperature at which lethal freezing occurs. Cold hardiness changes in response to weather and is difficult to measure directly in the field. Thus, growers rely on predictions to decide when to apply costly frost mitigation measures. We apply recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for daily cold-hardiness prediction from time series weather data. A major challenge is that the cold hardiness response varies across plant cultivars and ground-truth data for each cultivar is temporally sparse and limited. To address this challenge, we investigate multi-task learning (MTL) approaches for combining data, where different tasks correspond to different cultivars. We develop a variety of MTL architectures and evaluate them in both MTL and transfer learning settings. Our results show significant differences between architectures and that certain architectures are able to consistently outperform single-task learning and state-of-the-art scientific models. Additionally, we show similar results for the qualitatively different, but related, task of budbreak prediction. Further, improved accuracy for budbreak and cold hardiness is achieved by a single MTL model that simultaneously learns both tasks.
Aseem Saxena, Paola Pesántez-Cabrera, Markus Keller +1