On the Epistemic Uncertainty of Overparametrized Neural Networks

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight alternative through two approximations: a first-order Taylor expansion that expresses uncertainty in terms of the gradient of the prediction and the parameter covariance, and an isotropy assumption on the parameter covariance. Together, these yield epistemic uncertainty as the squared gradient norm and aleatoric uncertainty as the Bernoulli variance of the point prediction, from a single forward-backward pass through an unmodified pretrained model. We justify the isotropy assumption by showing that covariance estimates built from non-training data introduce structured distortions that isotropic covariance avoids, and that theoretical results on the spectral properties of large networks support the approximation at scale. Validation against reference Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimates on synthetic problems shows strong correspondence that improves with model size. We then use the estimates to investigate when each uncertainty type carries useful signal for predicting answer correctness in question answering with large language models, revealing a benchmark-dependent divergence: the combined estimate achieves the highest mean AUROC on TruthfulQA, where questions involve genuine conflict between plausible answers, but falls to near chance on TriviaQA's factual recall, suggesting that parameter-level uncertainty captures a fundamentally different signal than self-assessment methods.

We study the realization map of deep ReLU networks, focusing on when a function determines its parameters up to scaling and permutation. To analyze hidden redundancies beyond these standard symmetries, we introduce a framework based on weighted polyhedral complexes. Our main result shows that for every architecture whose input and hidden layers have width at least two, there exists an open set of identifiable parameters. This implies that the functional dimension of every such architecture is exactly the number of parameters minus the number of hidden neurons. We further show that minimal functional representations can still have non-trivial parameter redundancies. Finally, we establish a generic depth hierarchy, whereby for an open set of parameters the realized function cannot be represented generically by any shallower network.

Thanks to their extensive capacity, over-parameterized neural networks exhibit superior predictive capabilities and generalization. However, having a large parameter space is considered one of the main suspects of the neural networks' vulnerability to adversarial example -- input samples crafted ad-hoc to induce a desired misclassification. Relevant literature has claimed contradictory remarks in support of and against the robustness of over-parameterized networks. These contradictory findings might be due to the failure of the attack employed to evaluate the networks' robustness. Previous research has demonstrated that depending on the considered model, the algorithm employed to generate adversarial examples may not function properly, leading to overestimating the model's robustness. In this work, we empirically study the robustness of over-parameterized networks against adversarial examples. However, unlike the previous works, we also evaluate the considered attack's reliability to support the results' veracity. Our results show that over-parameterized networks are robust against adversarial attacks as opposed to their under-parameterized counterparts.