Constraint-Anchored Attribution: Feasibility-Certified Counterfactuals and Bonferroni-PAC Sufficient Subsets for Neural CO Policies

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are difficult because certifiable discrete structure induces exponential search. One needs to search over the set exponentially many candidates to certify optimality, however, the structural feasibility of a path, packing, or cover can be verified in polynomial time once supplied. In this study, we introduce Neural Certificate Pricing (NCP) that exploits this asymmetry under an unsupervised learning framework. A neural network is trained to predict certificate-level dual prices, while a structured recovery layer constructs the induced primal marginal. NCP can be viewed as amortized separation: instead of enumerating violated inequalities, it learns the residual prices through which their aggregate effect enters recovery. When the certificate-consistency condition holds, the recovered marginal is globally feasible, and a local theory shows that first-order errors in the predicted price induce only second-order loss in objective value. Across three classes of CO problems, NCP either outperforms state-of-the-art neural baselines by large margins or matches them at a fraction of the computation time, and shows stronger out-of-distribution generalization.

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) achieves strong performance, yet its black-box nature remains a key roadblock to deployment and scientific diagnosis. Standard interpretability tools, such as Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs), are ill-equipped for NCO, whose decisions are dynamic, state-dependent, and lack proper concept vocabulary definition. To close this gap, we introduce Evolving Programmatic Bottlenecks (EPB), to our knowledge, the first framework for interpreting NCO policies by distilling black-box NCO models into human-readable program portfolios. EPB employs an LLM to autonomously evolve a bank of programs, where each program's per-step action distribution serves as the bottleneck. EPB works through an iterative framework: Block I fixes program bank capacity and introduces a hybrid textual-numerical gradient descent scheme that couples numerical gradients for student router updates and textual gradients for LLM-based program revision; Block II dynamically adapts bank capacity via fault-targeted expansion and redundancy pruning. Extensive experiments demonstrate EPB's effectiveness and broad applicability, where the distilled program portfolios largely match original performance. EPB also reveals that NCO behavior shifts across optimization stages and can be approximated as a composition of classic heuristic variants. Our work advances interpretable NCO and establishes EPB as a promising tool for interpreting sequential decision-making models.