The Dynamic-Probabilistic Consistency Gap in Chaotic Surrogate Modeling

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a good surrogate model for chaotic dynamics is. Prior work has largely focused either on reproducing the Jacobian of the underlying dynamics, which governs local expansion and contraction rates, or on training surrogate models that reproduce the ground-truth dynamics' long-term statistical behavior. In this work, we propose a new framework that aims to bridge these two paradigms by training surrogate dynamics models with accurate Jacobians and long-term statistical properties. Our method constructs a local covering of a chaotic attractor in phase space and analyzes the expansion and contraction of these coverings under the dynamics. The surrogate model is trained by minimizing the maximum mean discrepancy between the pushforward distributions of the coverings under the surrogate and ground-truth dynamics. Experiments show that our method significantly improves Jacobian accuracy while remaining competitive with state-of-the-art statistically accurate dynamics learning methods. Our code is fully available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/neighborwatch.

Temporal surrogate models are effective for predicting chaotic dynamical systems where computational cost can be prohibitive. Several deep neural network architectures can be used for such purposes. In this work, a few commonly used architectures are compared using a common training protocol. The objective is to fairly assess the impact of model architectures for long-horizon prediction stability. Experiments are carried out for three problems, the double pendulum, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations, and the Kolmogorov flow. The experiments are carried out with matching model capacity. Analysis is also carried out for a scenario where each model is individually optimized. It is observed that in both scenarios, the models exhibit categorical differences in long-horizon rollouts. For a concrete quantification, stepwise error injections and perturbation amplifications are analyzed using metrics such as local jacobian, relative one-step bias, and finite-time Lyapunov growth. Additionally, an attractor analysis is also conducted to assess how well the learned models replicate the underlying system geometry. An ablation study to isolate the impact of each component of a continuous-update architecture is also carried out. It is concluded that models that having integrator-like updates show lower bias and perturbation amplification yielding stable long-horizon rollout and more accurate predictions.

Learning chaotic dynamical systems from data requires more than short-term predictive accuracy: the learned model must preserve the attractor geometry and its invariant statistics. Trajectory (zero-order) and Jacobian (first-order) matching supervise the values and tangent structure of the vector field, but neither constrains how the field bends away from its tangent plane. A model can thus match values and tangents at the supervised states yet curve differently from the truth, remaining locally accurate while drifting toward spurious attractors and distorting long-time statistics. We show that enforcing second-order consistency mitigates these failures, but forming the full Hessian is prohibitive in high dimensions. We propose model-constrained randomized Jacobian matching, which compares the Jacobians of the true and learned vector fields at randomly perturbed inputs. A Taylor expansion shows that the expected randomized Jacobian loss decomposes into the nominal Jacobian mismatch plus a Hessian mismatch scaled by the noise variance, implicitly enforcing second-order consistency at $\mathcal{O}(d^2)$ cost without forming the $\mathcal{O}(d^3)$ Hessian tensor. Using only Jacobian evaluations, the method scales to high dimensions where explicit Hessian matching does not. Numerical experiments confirm that second-order methods are robust. For Lorenz63, first-order methods produce catastrophic Lyapunov-exponent outliers under minimal temporal supervision, which second-order methods eliminate while recovering the correct attractor. For coupled Lorenz96, an out-of-distribution forcing sweep separates the methods: all agree up to $F=16$, but beyond $F=18$ only second-order methods preserve the invariant measure and Lyapunov spectrum. On both systems, randomized Jacobian matching performs comparably to explicit Hessian matching at much lower cost.