cs.ROMay 23, 2026

Can Predicted Dynamics Exist in the Physical World?

Authors: Barak Or

Organizations: STATE16

Abstract

Predictive Physical AI systems output state rollouts, action chunks, and latent plans, yet a low root-mean-square error (RMSE) does not imply that a particular proposal is physically executable. We formulate physical admissibility as a prediction-control interface: before execution, a decoded proposal is treated as candidate dynamics and evaluated using kinematic, dynamic, and direct-to-composed horizon conditions. Passing is not a certificate of task success; rejection identifies violation of the specified physical envelope and gives a component-level reason. On Hugging Face LeRobot PushT, controlled falsification shows that one-step prediction-RMSE and standardized dynamics residuals reach area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.982 and 0.972, kinematic-only conditions reach AUC 0.592, and the full gate reaches AUC 0.957 with condition-level attribution. In replay-based intervention experiments, residual-based filters and the full physical-admissibility gate prevent 87-$89% of invalid proposals while preserving mean progress near 0.998.

Explore similar work

May 28, 2026cs.AI

Physically Viable World Models: A Case for Query-Conditioned Embodied AI

World models for embodied AI must be physically viable: constructed to answer intervention queries by representing the physical structure governing action outcomes, rather than merely predicting future observations. Existing observation-predictive world models can produce visually plausible but physically wrong rollouts. This failure is structural; distinct physical systems can look identical yet diverge under intervention. We expose this problem with controlled benchmarks that fix the visible scene while varying latent physics. We show that such models may recommend infeasible actions, mispredict interaction outcomes, or certify unsafe behavior. We argue that embodied AI requires world models that identify the simplest physical abstraction sufficient to answer an intervention query. Such a model comprises modular components, including environment representation, latent state and parameter estimation, action specification, interventional dynamics, and query-level response. An autonomous orchestrator should identify the relevant abstraction and compose compatible learned and structured components per query. When closed-form physics is unavailable, uncertain, or costly, the transition model may be analytic, simulated, learned, or hybrid, but it must preserve the structure that determines interventional outcomes. This decomposition makes the model interpretable, its components verifiable, and its outputs auditable against the query. It also provides a design principle for new world models and a feasibility test for existing ones: the right abstraction is not the most detailed model of the world, but the simplest model that preserves the distinctions relevant to the query. We demonstrate this approach on queries that existing systems fail to answer correctly, and outline how an orchestrator can dynamically assemble and adapt physically viable models for planning, control, and verification.
Adam J. Thorpe, Stepan Tretiakov, Cheng-Hsi Hsiao +6
Jun 15, 2026cs.AI

Kairos: A Regret-Aware Native World-Action Model Stack for Physical AI

We introduce \textbf{Kairos}, a regret-aware native world-action model stack for Physical AI. Kairos is motivated by the view that a physical world model should not aim to fully simulate all future pixels, but should learn and maintain the information most relevant to embodiment control: object state, spatial relations, contact conditions, task progress, action consequences, failure boundaries, and deployment uncertainty. Kairos establishes three model-side prerequisites toward this goal. First, it \textbf{learns} control-relevant information through a \textbf{Cross-Embodiment Data Curriculum}, which organizes open-world videos, human behavioral data, and robot interactions into an intervention-strength progression from passive physical observation to intentional behavior and embodied action grounding. Second, it \textbf{maintains} control-sufficient states through a unified \textbf{understanding, generation, and prediction architecture} equipped with \textbf{Hybrid Linear Temporal Attention}, where local, mid-range, and global temporal pathways support multi-timescale state maintenance under efficient inference. Third, it \textbf{deploys} these states through a \textbf{Deployment-Aware System Co-Design}, treating latency, memory footprint, and hardware compatibility as first-order constraints for future observation, action, and feedback loops. Experiments on embodied world-model benchmarks, world-action benchmarks, long-horizon generation, and inference-efficiency evaluation show that Kairos achieves superior performance while offering a favorable efficiency to capability trade-off.
Kairos Team, Fei Wang, Shan You +21
Sep 2, 2026cs.RO

Modeling What Changes: Sparse, Residual World Models for Object-Centric Manipulation

Monolithic world models predict the entire next state at every step, spending capacity re-predicting the static majority of a scene and injecting error into it. We ask whether explicitly modeling change (a per-object change gate plus a residual delta head that perturbs only the objects the gate flags) is a more effective and interpretable bias for physical prediction and control. On a MuJoCo tabletop pushing benchmark scaling from 3 to 8 objects, the sparse/residual model predicts next-state poses 2.5 to 4.6 times more accurately than a dense multilayer perceptron at 8.6 to 11.1 times fewer parameters, sustains change-detection F1 of 0.80 to 0.87 where the dense baseline is degenerate, transfers across object counts with zero retraining (99.4 percent F1 retention), and reaches about 90 percent of its full-data accuracy with a quarter of the data. In autoregressive rollout it compounds far less error, hugging the no-motion floor while the dense model drifts. Finally, inside a sampling-based planner, prediction-only models fail (though a true-simulator oracle solves the task with the identical planner, confirming the planner is sound), but once featurized and trained for the states a planner visits, the sparse model begins to plan (0.23 plus or minus 0.06 success over three seeds) while the dense monolith stays at zero at every seed. Modeling what changes, rather than re-predicting the whole world, is a simple, effective bias for object-centric physical AI; code, data generators, and all checkpoints will be released upon publication.
Param Thakkar, Parsika Paresh Shah, Manisha Sushant Gote