The Harsh Truth: Segment-Level Analysis of Harsh Driving Events in Milan Using Large-Scale Telematics, Street Networks, and Google Street View
Authors: Andrea La Grotteria, Paolo Santi, Titus Venverloo, Umberto Fugiglando, Carlo Ratti
Abstract
Police-reported crash statistics remain the standard input for urban road-safety assessment, but their incompleteness and reporting lag limit their usefulness for timely, fine-grained intervention design. Harsh acceleration and braking events are widely used as surrogate safety indicators, but have so far been studied only in comparatively small urban samples. This study analyses harsh events across the urban road network of Milan, combining high-resolution telematics from more than 4.2 million vehicles equipped with On-Board Units, segment-level traffic metrics from TomTom, street-network and infrastructure attributes from OpenStreetMap, and visual streetscape features extracted from Google Street View via semantic segmentation using a OneFormer model. We employ an analytical framework combining non-parametric Mann--Whitney U tests of segment-feature distributions between high- and low-harshness groups with supervised machine-learning regressors. We find that, once exposure is controlled for, wider carriageways, crossings and transit stops, and more open visual fields (higher sky- and road-pixel proportions) are associated with higher harsh-event intensity, while denser built frontage is associated with lower intensity. Finally, the cycling-infrastructure case study identifies a gradient in harsh-event intensity across facility types: markings-only cycle lanes are associated with a 19.5% higher harshness score, and mixed-traffic configurations with an 11.5% higher score, relative to physically separated cycle paths, conditional on the included controls. These results support context-specific rather than uniform urban-safety interventions and illustrate how large-scale telematics combined with open geospatial and visual data can inform Vision Zero decision-making at the metropolitan scale.
Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.
Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide. Much of that harm concentrates at hotspots, yet a hotspot is less a place than an episode; it emerges quietly at an intersection or along an arterial, intensifies for weeks, then subsides, only to reappear elsewhere. Enforcement guided by maps of past crashes inevitably trails this cycle, patrolling yesterday's hotspots while tomorrow's form unwatched. Breaking that lag requires three capabilities at once: detecting hotspots as they are born, forecasting where they will sit next week, and following each one through its life. We introduce HERALD (Hotspot Emergence, Risk Anticipation, and Life-cycle Dynamics), a unified deep learning framework that provides all three from a single statewide model. HERALD distills each county's recent crash history into weekly risk maps and forecasts the next with a CNN--Transformer, whose mixture-of-experts lets one model serve dense urban cores and sparse rural corridors alike. Each forecast is anchored in the county's long-run crash geography, sharpened by the self-exciting effect of recent crashes, and paired with explicit warnings of where new hotspots are about to appear. Followed over time, every hotspot acquires a legible life story, from birth through growth and stability to decline and death. Across six heterogeneous Wisconsin counties, HERALD forecasts more accurately than five identically trained baselines, locates hotspots most precisely, and flags emerging risks before they take hold. A single adjustable setting trades accuracy for extra sensitivity where deployment demands it. The result shifts hotspot management from mapping the past to anticipating the future.
Urban transportation systems face growing safety challenges that require scalable intelligence for emerging smart mobility infrastructures. While recent advances in foundation models and large-scale multimodal datasets have strengthened perception and reasoning in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), existing research remains largely centered on microscopic autonomous driving (AD), with limited attention to city-scale traffic analysis. In particular, open-ended safety-oriented visual question answering (VQA) and corresponding foundation models for reasoning over heterogeneous roadside camera observations remain underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the Land Transportation Dataset (LTD), a large-scale open-source vision-language dataset for open-ended reasoning in urban traffic environments. LTD contains 11.6K high-quality VQA pairs collected from heterogeneous roadside cameras, spanning diverse road geometries, traffic participants, illumination conditions, and adverse weather. The dataset integrates three complementary tasks: fine-grained multi-object grounding, multi-image camera selection, and multi-image risk analysis, requiring joint reasoning over minimally correlated views to infer hazardous objects, contributing factors, and risky road directions. To ensure annotation fidelity, we combine multi-model vision-language generation with cross-validation and human-in-the-loop refinement. Building upon LTD, we further propose UniVLT, a transportation foundation model trained via curriculum-based knowledge transfer to unify microscopic AD reasoning and macroscopic traffic analysis within a single architecture. Extensive experiments on LTD and multiple AD benchmarks demonstrate that UniVLT achieves SOTA performance on open-ended reasoning tasks across diverse domains, while exposing limitations of existing foundation models in complex multi-view traffic scenarios.