The Deterministic Horizon: When Extended Reasoning Fails and Tool Delegation Becomes Necessary

Chain-of-thought reasoning is often treated as a monotone way to improve language-model accuracy by letting a model think longer. We identify a countervailing effect, the coupling tax: when reasoning traces and final answers share one output-token budget, long traces can crowd out the answer they are meant to support. Across GSM8K, MATH-500, and five BIG-Bench Hard tasks with Qwen3 models at three scales, non-thinking mode matches or outperforms thinking mode on GSM8K and MATH-500 at every budget up to 2048 tokens, while harder tasks shift the crossover to larger budgets. We derive a truncation-waste decomposition, $\mathrm{Acc}_{\mathrm{think}}(b)=α_c F_L(b)+α_t(1-F_L(b))$, that predicts this crossover from chain-length and accuracy statistics and explains inverse scaling within the Qwen family. A DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B replication shows the same pattern under a different thinking interface. As a mitigation, split-budget generation decouples reasoning and answer budgets; on full MATH-500, IRIS reaches 74.0% accuracy, a strengthened extraction variant reaches 78.8%, and a fixed non-oracle SC+IRIS gate reaches 83.6%. The results show that test-time reasoning should be evaluated as a budget-allocation problem, not only as a question of whether longer traces are available.

This paper investigates the entropy dynamics of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and uncovers a consistent two-phase structure: an Uncertainty Region of exploration transitioning sharply to a Confidence Region of convergence. We demonstrate that the Confidence Region possesses two critical properties: 1) High Reliability -- answers in the confidence region become highly accurate and stable, and 2) High Redundancy -- models generate unnecessary tokens long after reaching the correct answer. These properties unlock more efficient and reliable inference strategies: 1) Early Exit leverages reliability and redundancy to terminate computation safely when returns diminish, and 2)Test-Time Scaling uses the Confidence Region signal to prioritize converged trajectories. To operationalize these insights, we formulate Confidence Region detection as a sequential change-point detection problem, being the first to apply classical change-point methods to monitor CoT reasoning. Using the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm, a statistically optimal change-point detector, we develop a training-free framework for real-time inference control. Experiments show our approach establishes a superior Pareto-frontier for early exit. CUSUM achieves 63.06% accuracy with 11.1% token reduction, outperforming DEER and Dynasor by 3.28% and 4.36% in accuracy respectively. For test-time scaling, CUSUM-weighted voting consistently outperforms self-consistency.

Large language models improve final-answer accuracy through extended chain-of-thought reasoning, but often spend tokens inefficiently and offer little inference-time control. Existing efficient reasoning methods control thinking length by shortening, early-stopping, or compressing traces, leaving how the model thinks implicit. In this paper, we propose Agentic Chain-of-Thought Steering (ACTS), which formulates reasoning steering as a Markov decision process where a controller agent adaptively steers a frozen reasoner during inference. At each step, the controller observes the reasoning trace and remaining thinking budget, then issues a steering action consisting of a reasoning strategy and a steering phrase that initiates the next reasoner step. This enables budget-aware strategy control for efficient reasoning while preserving the reasoner's generation continuity. We initialize the controller agent from our constructed synthetic steering trajectories with multi-budget augmentation, and further optimize it via reinforcement learning with budget-conditioned reward shaping. Experiments across multiple benchmarks show that ACTS matches full-thinking performance with substantial token savings, and enables controllable accuracy-efficiency trade-offs across different reasoners and tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/Andree-9/ACTS.