An Exploratory Study into using Machine-Learning for Fast Step-by-step Emulation of Numerical Mechanical Thrombectomy Simulations for Ischemic Stroke

Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models. However, standard auto-regressive ML emulators often suffer from error accumulation over long horizons and struggle to capture the stochasticity of complex physical systems. In this paper, we propose Kastor, a comprehensive methodology to adapt a deterministic physics foundation model into a highly efficient and accurate generative surrogate. First, we introduce a two-stage inference scheme that combines a large-stride causal auto-regressive model with a non-causal temporal super-resolution network, significantly reducing error accumulation while minimizing computational cost. Second, we present Mean prediction regularization (MPR), a novel training objective that constrains the generative model to predict the deterministic distribution mean under null noise conditioning. This regularization dramatically improves the performance and stability of both Functional Generative Networks (FGN) and diffusion-based emulators. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating spatial gradient matching improves the accuracy and physical fidelity of the simulations as measured by power spectrum density. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulation datasets of the benchmark The Well show that with these components, our model outperforms competing methods in forecasting accuracy, spectral consistency, and computational efficiency. Our model achieves a 42.9% average reduction in forecasting compared to our reference based on the Walrus finetuning methodology, and outperforms Walrus for 8 out of 10 datasets on variance-normalized RMSE (VRMSE).

Neural surrogate models for physical simulations are trained on discretized samples of continuous domains, where the induced empirical measure leads to uneven supervision, biasing optimization and causing spatial inconsistencies in physical fidelity. To mitigate this measure-induced bias, we propose M$^3$ (Multi-scale Morton Measure), a scalable framework that balances training measures by partitioning space according to physical variation and allocating supervision across multiple scales. Applied to three industrial-scale datasets with diverse discretizations, M$^3$ consistently improves predictions in the continuous physical domain, achieving up to 4.7$\times$ lower error in large-scale volumetric cases. These gains persist under aggressive subsampling (160M $\rightarrow$ 16M $\rightarrow$ 1.6M points), where M$^3$-trained models outperform those trained on higher-resolution data, reducing physics-weighted relative $L_2$ error by 3--4$\times$ and the corresponding MSE by up to 13$\times$. These results highlight data distribution as a key factor in operator learning and position M$^3$ as a scalable, data-efficient approach for physically consistent modeling. Code is available at https://github.com/PhysDataRefine/M3.

Integral codes like the Accident Source Term Evaluation Code (ASTEC) are powerful tools to study the physics of Severe Accidents (SAs) in nuclear reactors. Real time SA simulators can also be helpful in training operators of nuclear plants to react correctly to malfunctions. However, SA simulators can take up to several days per simulation, making their use infeasible for real time applications. In this work we show how to speed up a SA simulator with a fast, Deep Learning based (DL), surrogate model (SM). The SM is built as a combination of a dimensionality reduction stage, via an AutoEncoder, and a time-stepping stage, via a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation. The data on which the SM is trained are obtained from the ASTEC simulator, by sampling a set of operator actions for station blackout (SBO) and loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). The objective of the developed SM is to approximate multiple spatio-temporal fields for the thermal-hydraulic physics, core degradation, and fission product release modules in ASTEC's vessel domain. The SM predicts simultaneously around $80$ different physical variables (both scalar and fields), maintaining a stable autoregressive rollout up to $50$ thousand time steps. In addition, the AutoEncoder achieves a dimensionality reduction by a factor of over $300$, which allows the SM to predict up to $40$ hours of simulation in under a minute, both on CPU and GPU. This work is the first study of the capabilities and limits of DL based surrogate modeling in approximating the challenging, highly non-linear physics of ASTEC.