UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA
Authors: Duo Wang, Qiong Wu, Jianguo Wu, Ruiyu Xu, Jinhui Yi, Zhonggen Sun, Zhentao Zhang, Yu Zhang, +4 more
Abstract
Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction on checkout page is crucial in instant logistics for enhancing user satisfaction, optimizing dispatching, and controlling operational costs. In international on-demand delivery platforms, where ETA data originates from diverse countries or regions with different patterns, multi-domain modeling is of great importance and has been widely adopted. However, existing methods still face three critical challenges in real-world deployment. First, current multi-domain models struggle to generalize to completely unseen domains, failing to achieve zero-shot prediction during the initial cold-start phase. Second, cross-domain feature spaces are often assumed to be consistent, whereas new domains commonly suffer from structural missingness of offline (statistical) features due to the lack of historical data. Third, such feature missingness often compels industrial systems to model mature and cold-start domains separately, hindering knowledge transfer and increasing maintenance overhead. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{UME}, a \textbf{U}nified \textbf{M}eta-generalization framework for \textbf{E}TA. Specifically, UME integrates a unified dual-branch architecture with a novel meta-learning mechanism that employs a hypernetwork-based meta learner. By leveraging domain-level knowledge and instance-level context, the meta learner empowers three meta modules to dynamically modulate feature gating, expert attention, and final prediction, capturing cross-domain correlations and facilitating intra-domain adaptation. A knowledge distillation strategy is further introduce to enhance performance. UME has now been deployed in Meituan-keeta delivery platform (the largest international food delivery platform in China). Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate that UME significantly outperforms existing baselines.
Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is a core component of intelligent transportation systems. As traffic congestion patterns become increasingly dynamic in large cities, maintaining high prediction accuracy poses a major challenge for ride-hailing platforms. Existing methods either fail to adapt to irregular traffic patterns and sudden congestion, or suffer from new distributions without disentangling long-term trends from short-term fluctuations, thereby degrading model performance in real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose DSETA, an incrementally updated Dual-Stage ETA prediction framework. Specifically, the continual learning process is divided into \textit{inter-day} and \textit{intra-day} stages. We first design the \textit{intra-day} learning stage, which relies entirely on real-time data to enable dynamic adaptation to short-term traffic patterns caused by events like holidays or accidents. Next, we develop the \textit{inter-day} learning stage, which leverages aggregated historical data from a short time window to capture knowledge of long-term distribution shifts, such as seasonal trends and traffic network evolution. Subsequently, to prevent catastrophic forgetting and preserve knowledge of regular patterns, we explore a \textit{Historical Traffic Knowledge Consolidation} module. Finally, we validate DSETA's effectiveness and robustness through extensive offline and online experiments conducted on real-world datasets from DiDi's platform. Online A/B tests across three major cities including Beijing, Wuhan, and Xi'an consistently demonstrated performance gains, achieving MAE reductions of 6.62%, 0.73%, and 2.40% respectively. This framework has been successfully deployed in DiDi's production environment, processing hundreds of millions of daily requests and validating its strong performance in industrial applications.
Traffic state prediction is a fundamental task in intelligent transportation systems. In practical applications, some regions suffer from limited traffic observations due to insufficient sensing infrastructure, making cross-domain knowledge transfer an important solution for data-scarce traffic prediction. However, existing cross-domain traffic prediction methods still face several limitations, including coarse-grained source-target adaptation, limited capability in handling unseen target-domain patterns, and insufficient modeling of continuous traffic dynamics under irregular or heterogeneous temporal conditions. To address these issues, this paper proposes a continuous cross-domain traffic prediction framework, termed Memory-Augmented Graph Liquid Time-Constant Network (MA-GLTC). Specifically, we first construct spatio-temporal units (STUs) to decompose traffic networks into transferable local units, enabling fine-grained knowledge alignment across domains. Then, a graph liquid time-constant network (GLTC) is developed to model graph-coupled traffic evolution in continuous time. Different from generic graph neural ODE-based models, GLTC introduces graph-coupled recurrent conductance into liquid time-constant dynamics, allowing node states to evolve with leakage, adaptive time constants, and neighborhood-aware feedback. Furthermore, a Memory-based Transfer Storage (MTS) mechanism is designed to preserve source-domain knowledge, retrieve matched traffic patterns, and update reliable target-domain patterns when unseen states emerge. Experiments on five public traffic datasets demonstrate that MA-GLTC consistently outperforms representative innerdomain and cross-domain baselines in both short-term and longterm prediction tasks. Compared with the second-best method, MA-GLTC reduces the average prediction errors by 3.02%, 0.33%, 8.92%, 10.09%, and 2.11%, respectively.
End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional modular pipelines by directly mapping raw sensor data to driving actions. While recent approaches achieve strong performance on single-domain datasets, their performance degrades significantly when trained jointly across multiple heterogeneous domains. In practice, however, autonomous systems must operate across diverse environments with heterogeneous distributions, including different cities, sensor configurations, and traffic patterns, without domain-specific retraining. This gap highlights a key challenge in multi-domain learning: domain-specific variations across heterogeneous domains introduce conflicting learning signals, driving models toward compromised solutions that are suboptimal across domains. To address this, we propose a trajectory-driven learning paradigm that organizes training around planning trajectories, enabling the model to capture domain-invariant representations of driving intent. Furthermore, we incorporate a world model that predicts future latent features conditioned on ego actions, improving feature consistency and mitigating domain-induced biases. We evaluate our approach on three benchmarks, nuScenes, NAVSIM, and the Waymo end-to-end dataset, and show substantial improvements over existing methods across all domains. Our results demonstrate that a single unified model can be trained on heterogeneous datasets while maintaining strong performance within each domain, highlighting a step toward scalable real-world deployment. We will make our code publicly available.