The price of multi-group transductive learning

We revisit transductive learning where predictions are made with the set of all covariates known in advance. In the leave-one-out (LOO) setting, the prediction is made with labels of the remaining sample points and evaluated by the average error. In particular, we study multiplicative oracle inequalities for agnostic transductive LOO prediction for a variety of tasks, including classification with 0-1 loss, squared loss regression, density estimation, and logistic regression. Specifically, we introduce \emph{Median of Level-Set Aggregation} (MLSA), an aggregation procedure built on near-ERM level sets (i.e., empirical-risk level sets around the ERM). We prove a general multiplicative oracle inequality for the LOO error of the form $$LOO_S(MLSA) \;\le\; C \left( \frac{1}{n} \min_{h\in H} L_S(h) \;+\; \frac{\log |H|}{n}\right), \qquad C>1,$$ where $H$ is the hypothesis/function class. This inequality holds for hypothesis classes under a local level-set growth condition together with losses satisfying a mild monotonicity assumption. For classification with VC classes under the $0$--$1$ loss, the $\log |H|$ factor can be improved to be $d\log n$, where $d$ is the VC dimension, recovering Long (1998) up to a $\log n$ factor. For logistic regression with bounded covariates and parameters, the $\log |H|$ factor can be improved to be $d\log n$ up to problem-dependent factors, where $d$ is the ambient dimension.

We introduce Sharper Transductive Local Complexity (STLC), a localized complexity method for transductive learning under uniform sampling without replacement. The construction starts from a Bernstein-type concentration inequality for the supremum of the test--train empirical process. Its proof uses the modified log-Sobolev inequality for the swap walk and a two-parameter entropy closure. A peeling argument with a surrogate localization functional then gives excess-risk bounds with the same fixed-point and confidence terms as the classical inductive local Rademacher-complexity bounds, without the additional logarithmic confidence factor in earlier transductive results. For realizable learning over a binary class of VC dimension $\dVC$, with training size $m$, test size $u$, and $u\ge m\ge\dVC$, STLC yields $\cO\{\dVC\log(me/\dVC)/m\}$. This matches the standard inductive rate and, when $m\ge9$, is within a logarithmic factor of the transductive minimax lower bound of order $\dVC/m$. For transductive kernel learning, STLC gives a spectrum-adaptive excess-risk bound without the multiplicative imbalance factors appearing in the earlier local-complexity bound.

We consider the problem of universal transductive online classification with a possibly unbounded label space. This setting considers online learning, with the sequence of instances (without labels) known to the learner in advance. We say a concept class $\mathcal{H}$ is learnable if there is a learning algorithm $\mathcal{A}$, such that for every realizable sequence, the number of mistakes made by $\mathcal{A}$ grows at most sublinearly with the number of predictions. We characterize the learnability of this setting and show that there are only two possible optimal rates for the learnable classes: either bounded or increasing logarithmically. We introduce a new combinatorial structure, called ``Level-Constrained-Littlestone-Littlestone (LCLL) tree'', which, along with the indifference property, characterizes the learnability. We also extend the learnability result to the agnostic case and the case where only the stochastic process that generates the instance sequence is known.