Learning Manifold and Itô Dynamics with Branched Neural Rough Differential Equations

Neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning noisy or stochastic dynamics directly from data; however, existing approaches largely assume uncoupled and continuous noise, limiting their applicability to realistic stochastic drivers, and often scale poorly in time, requiring expensive autoregressive training. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Kolmogorov Equations (NKEs), a deterministic, infinite-dimensional reformulation of Neural SDEs based on the Kolmogorov Forward equation, transforming the learning problem from modelling individual stochastic trajectories to modelling the evolution of probability densities. NKEs learn general Lévy-type stochastic forcing directly through the operator structure of the KFE, and enable parallel-in-time training via a Lagrangian Galerkin projection and operator splitting. We evaluate NKEs on several stochastic benchmarks, including systems with coupled noise and jump processes, and verify that NKEs provide flexible models that accurately recover deterministic and stochastic dynamics with competitive predictive accuracy and improved training efficiency. Code and pretrained models will be released.

Many real-world systems evolve continuously, yet most machine learning models interpret time series as discrete sequences. Continuous-time approaches instead treat time series as samples from an underlying input path, a formulation that naturally accommodates irregularly sampled or oversampled data. Among these, Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a maximally expressive class of models that parametrise a vector field using a neural network and evolve their hidden state by solving a dynamical system driven by the input path. NCDEs typically use a non-linear vector field, so their expressive power and continuous-time flexibility come at the cost of a forward pass that is both computationally expensive and inherently sequential, limiting their scalability and practical applicability. This thesis advances the training and scalability of NCDEs through three complementary contributions. First, building on neural rough differential equations, Log-NCDEs apply the Log-ODE method to efficiently approximate an NCDE's solution during training, improving both computational speed and empirical performance. Second, Linear NCDEs replace the non-linear vector field with a linear one, enabling closed-form solutions and parallel-in-time computation without sacrificing theoretical expressivity. Third, Structured Linear NCDEs use structured linear vector fields to further enhance efficiency while maintaining theoretical expressiveness and empirical performance. Collectively, these methods reduce the time per training step for an NCDE by up to three orders of magnitude while achieving state-of-the-art performance across diverse time series benchmarks.

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model dynamical systems in physics, biology, neuroscience, and physiology, but in many applications some equations of the dynamics are unknown and only a subset of the state variables are measured. We propose a hybrid neural--physics framework in which the known components of the ODE are kept explicit and the missing components are represented by a neural network. The proposed method consists of two stages where we alternate between state and parameter estimation and iterate until a predetermined criterion is met. Specifically, in the first step, we treat the model parameters as being known and we infer the latent states from the available measurements using a Rauch--Tung--Striebel (RTS) smoother. In the second stage, we treat the smoothed trajectories as being known and use them to estimate the neural networks' parameters through backpropagation. We evaluate the method on benchmark systems spanning linear, nonlinear, and stiff dynamics under partial state observation. Across these settings, the proposed method learns missing ODE components from incomplete measurements while exploiting and retaining interpretable mechanistic structure and improving latent-state reconstruction and long-horizon prediction.