Abstract
Many real-world systems evolve continuously, yet most machine learning models interpret time series as discrete sequences. Continuous-time approaches instead treat time series as samples from an underlying input path, a formulation that naturally accommodates irregularly sampled or oversampled data. Among these, Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a maximally expressive class of models that parametrise a vector field using a neural network and evolve their hidden state by solving a dynamical system driven by the input path. NCDEs typically use a non-linear vector field, so their expressive power and continuous-time flexibility come at the cost of a forward pass that is both computationally expensive and inherently sequential, limiting their scalability and practical applicability. This thesis advances the training and scalability of NCDEs through three complementary contributions. First, building on neural rough differential equations, Log-NCDEs apply the Log-ODE method to efficiently approximate an NCDE's solution during training, improving both computational speed and empirical performance. Second, Linear NCDEs replace the non-linear vector field with a linear one, enabling closed-form solutions and parallel-in-time computation without sacrificing theoretical expressivity. Third, Structured Linear NCDEs use structured linear vector fields to further enhance efficiency while maintaining theoretical expressiveness and empirical performance. Collectively, these methods reduce the time per training step for an NCDE by up to three orders of magnitude while achieving state-of-the-art performance across diverse time series benchmarks.
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Feb 2, 2026cs.LG
Neural Controlled Differential Equations (Neural CDEs) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for sequence modeling, yet the roughness of the driving control path often restricts their efficiency. Standard splines introduce high-frequency variations that force adaptive solvers to take excessively small steps, driving up the Number of Function Evaluations (NFE). We propose a novel approach to Neural CDE path construction that replaces exact interpolation with Kernel and Gaussian Process (GP) smoothing, enabling explicit control over trajectory regularity. To recover details lost during smoothing, we propose an attention-based Multi-View CDE (MV-CDE) and its convolutional extension (MVC-CDE), which employ learnable queries to inform path reconstruction. This framework allows the model to distribute representational capacity across multiple trajectories, each capturing distinct temporal patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that our method, MVC-CDE with GP, achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while significantly reducing NFEs and total inference time compared to spline-based baselines.
Egor Serov, Ilya Kuleshov, Alexey Zaytsev
Jan 20, 2026cs.LG
Time series generation (TSG) is widely used across domains, yet most existing methods assume regular sampling and fixed output resolutions. These assumptions are often violated in practice, where observations are irregular and sparse, while downstream applications require continuous and high-resolution TS. Although Neural Controlled Differential Equation (NCDE) is promising for modeling irregular TS, it is constrained by a single dynamics function, tightly coupled optimization, and limited ability to adapt learned dynamics to newly generated samples from the generative model. We propose Diff-MN, a continuous TSG framework that enhances NCDE with a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) dynamics function and a decoupled architectural design for dynamics-focused training. To further enable NCDE to generalize to newly generated samples, Diff-MN employs a diffusion model to parameterize the NCDE temporal dynamics parameters (MoE weights), i.e., jointly learn the distribution of TS data and MoE weights. This design allows sample-specific NCDE parameters to be generated for continuous TS generation. Experiments on ten public and synthetic datasets demonstrate that Diff-MN consistently outperforms strong baselines on both irregular-to-regular and irregular-to-continuous TSG tasks. The code is available at the link https://github.com/microsoft/TimeCraft/tree/main/Diff-MN.
Xu Zhang, Junwei Deng, Chang Xu +2
Jun 17, 2026cs.LG
Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori. We introduce Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS (INDEQS), a graph-based NCDE forecasting method that incorporates prior knowledge of a directed graph at distinct architectural positions. INDEQS separates inner mixing of hidden states across graph nodes from outer mixing between vector field and control, and offers both a lightweight graph-constrained variant and a more expressive variant, learning additional graph connections from data via adaptive graph convolutions. To systematically study when graph informedness is beneficial in forecasting, we devise a continuous advection simulation on directed graphs, yielding synthetic spatio-temporal datasets with known ground-truth flow structure. We then evaluate INDEQS on two real-world tasks: river discharge forecasting on a hydrological network and traffic flow prediction on PeMS08. Across these synthetic and real-world benchmarks, outer informedness consistently improves mean absolute error over an uninformed NCDE with comparable parameter count, particularly on larger graphs, while inner informedness offers a more parameter-efficient alternative when strict adherence to a known adjacency is desired. A comparison of discrete convolutional and continuous-time decoders further shows that continuous decoders yield better accuracy and greater temporal flexibility on real-world tasks. An implementation of INDEQS and the advection simulation is available at https://github.com/Mitchi1/indeqs.
Michael Detzel, Gabriel Nobis, Kristiyan Blagov +3