Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

A key question for AI safety is whether a language model expresses all of its reasoning in its output tokens. We demonstrate a concrete failure mode where frontier models exhibit invisible reasoning by leveraging semantically irrelevant filler tokens to improve performance on synthetic reasoning tasks. We evaluate 13 frontier language models across three tasks and find that many models benefit significantly from filler tokens, with accuracy improvements of up to 13 percentage points. The benefit depends on which tokens are used and differs across models. We further show that filler tokens enable Claude Opus 4.5 to satisfy a hidden modular arithmetic constraint without sacrificing accuracy on its primary task, demonstrating that invisible reasoning can serve objectives entirely invisible to CoT monitoring. Reinforcement learning gives Qwen3-235B strong preferences over filler token content, but neither RL nor supervised fine-tuning produces a filler token benefit that persists at test time. Our results indicate that frontier models already perform consequential computation with no interpretable trace in their output tokens.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning improves large reasoning models (LRMs) on complex tasks but often produces long, redundant traces. Recent training-free early-exit methods shorten these traces by choosing an intermediate point to stop reasoning. We study one such strategy that injects an end-of-think token (EoT, </think>) at this point to trigger the reasoning-to-answering transition, and find that the injected EoT does not always induce a clean answering phase. Answering-phase generation can continue before the model regenerates another EoT, with the span preceding this regenerated EoT scaling with the reasoning tokens saved by early exit and exhibiting continued reasoning behavior. We call this spurious CoT termination, where reasoning-like generation continues into the answering phase. We hypothesize that insufficient attention to the injected EoT contributes to spurious CoT termination and probe this hypothesis with Exit-token Attention Biasing (EAB). Across four LRMs, five benchmarks, and two early-exit methods, increasing attention to the injected EoT reduces spurious CoT termination and answering-phase length. These results reveal a limitation of controlling LRMs by externally matching their explicit think-block format. Inserting the EoT token conforms to this format but does not by itself guarantee the intended reasoning-to-answering transition. Our code is available at https://github.com/Seunghee-Koh/Spurious-CoT-Termination.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is the dominant paradigm for inference-time scaling in language models, yet the causal influence of individual steps on the final answer poorly understood. We estimate each step's causal importance via early exit and use this measure to study how answers form across the reasoning traces of several model families. Across diverse tasks, we find that reasoning typically crosses a \emph{commitment boundary} -- a sharp transition from transient intermediate guesses to a stable, high-confidence answer. This transition often happens in a single step, well before the model's reasoning block ends, and is followed by \emph{epiphenomenal} CoT steps that leave the final answer probability unaltered. Using attention probes, we show that answer-formation stages can be linearly decoded from intermediate reasoning steps with high accuracy and generalize robustly to unseen reasoning tasks. We exploit this signal to early-exit reasoning blocks at the commitment boundary, reducing the length of CoTs up to 55% on average with negligible impact on model performance.