TRIAGE: Dialectical Reasoning for Explainable Risk Prediction on Irregularly Sampled Medical Time Series with LLMs
Authors: Hyeongwon Jang, Gyouk Chu, Changhun Kim, Joonhyung Park, Hangyul Yoon, Eunho Yang
Organizations: KAIST · AITRICS · University of Wisconsin-Madison
Abstract
Clinical early warning systems built on electronic health records, in which clinical observations are recorded as irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS), must deliver both calibrated risk scores for patient triage and interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large Language Models (LLMs) have been explored for this task, yet they collapse graded clinical risk into overconfident binary predictions. This risk polarization undermines both calibration and cross-patient comparability. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to generate dialectical reasoning over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to yield continuous risk scores grounded in explicit clinical reasoning. Evaluated on three ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE achieves an average AUPRC improvement of 3.3% and reduces calibration error by 81% compared to the competitive baselines. An LLM-as-a-judge assessment further shows that our rationales surpass post-hoc explanations from the baseline by 20% in clinical reasoning quality. The source code is available at https://github.com/HyeongWon-Jang/TRIAGE .
Large language models (LLMs) offer promising clinical decision support but remain vulnerable to hallucinated facts, unsupported recommendations, and citation errors. We present DIASENTINEL, a fully on-premise multi-agent system for one-year type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk screening and guideline-grounded report generation from electronic health records (EHRs). The system integrates calibrated risk prediction, deterministic clinical signal extraction, Reciprocal Rank Fusion over American Diabetes Association (ADA) guidelines, and a hybrid verification layer combining rule-based checks with LLM entailment. The demonstration provides a real-time batch-screening dashboard and an interactive patient report interface with cited recommendations, verification results, and raw EHR comparison. DIASENTINEL demonstrates a practical framework for reliable, auditable, and privacy-preserving LLM-based clinical decision support.
LLM now pass medical licensing examinations and, in curated cases, can rival physicians at diagnostic reasoning. These developments have accelerated the use of LLMs for symptom assessment and clinical decision support in diagnostic and treatment guidance, administrative documentation, and rules-based alert enhancement. This Perspective concerns the most consequential of these applications: the autonomous triage of self-presenting, undifferentiated patients, with little or no clinician in the loop. For that task, the evidence of safety does not yet exist. The gap is not in medical knowledge but in the fidelity of clinical evaluation: a model optimized to continue the most probable text is not optimized to act safely when the safe answer is the improbable must-not-miss diagnosis. Safe triage is not the selection of the most likely diagnosis; it is a sequential decision under asymmetric cost, in which the single catastrophic miss outweighs many false alarms, and the decisive signal may be one the patient has not volunteered - and that the model has not been trained to seek. The core deficit is therefore one of information gathering under uncertainty. Under incomplete histories, LLM systems may fail to show the behaviors safe triage requires: broadening the differential; seeking the missing red flag; lowering the threshold for escalation; deferring judgement until sufficient information is obtained; and escalating concern where high-harm diagnoses remain unexcluded. These modes of failure for LLMs can be difficult to detect considering that evaluations to date often use complete, well-curated, confidence-gated simulations. The application of LLMs under these conditions may be amplified by assistant-like behaviors and positive bias, including credulity, agreeableness, and miscalibration - when these are not constrained by clinical triage logic.
Shayndhan Sivanathan, Shravan Nageswaran, Mehdi Zadem +10
Patient-facing medical LLMs and agents increasingly answer symptom questions before clinician contact, where the key safety question is what action the user should take next. We introduce CARE-Bench, a source-grounded benchmark that evaluates sequential patient-facing triage as a four-label per-turn current-action task. CARE-Bench contains 500 cases and 1,059 evaluated patient-disclosure prefixes reconstructed from medical dialogue, consultation, and follow-up-question sources. We evaluate 11 models on 269 held-out rounds under unprompted and minimally prompted open-ended protocols, using a fixed GPT-5.5 mapper to code each response into the four-label action space. Unprompted macro-F1 remains low, ranging from 31.2 to 50.4. Prompting improves 10 of 11 models, with prompted macro-F1 ranging from 46.9 to 63.4, but substantial threshold errors remain. Prompted models often recommend care before needed clarification is obtained; when the correct action was to ask for more information, only 33.5% of prompted outputs preserved the step. The persistence of these errors after prompting suggests that patient-facing triage is not a simple prompting problem and supports explicit evaluation of action timing before deployment.