Data-driven PDE surrogates are trained with data produced by numerical PDE solvers. However, when the surrogate's goal is to generalize across a wide range of PDE configurations (e.g., initial conditions and physical coefficients), generating a representative training set is non-trivial. Uniform sampling of configuration parameters often under-represents trajectories exhibiting challenging dynamics, leading to high prediction errors and large error variance in the trained surrogate. Online training, where data generation and surrogate training are coupled, offers a natural advantage by allowing solver parameters to be steered on-the-fly. To efficiently exploit this capability, we introduce Online Generative Active Sampling (OGAS), an active learning method that reactively learns the relationship between configuration parameters and surrogate performance to control the sampling distribution. OGAS trains a fast diffusion model in parallel to the surrogate to act as a conditional sampler, mapping a surrogate-derived difficulty signal (e.g., loss or uncertainty) to configuration parameters. By actively drawing target signals from a prior biased toward high difficulty, OGAS continuously steers data generation toward challenging regimes without delaying the training workflow. We evaluate OGAS across 2D PDEs with distinct challenging dynamics (Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes, Gray-Scott) and up to 308 parameters, using multiple surrogate architectures. Across all settings, OGAS consistently improves tail statistics, yielding substantial reductions in errors above the 99th percentile and overall error dispersion compared to uniform sampling. While prioritizing challenging trajectories introduces a trade-off with average error, OGAS effectively ensures worst-case reliability of trained surrogates with negligible wall-time overhead.
Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models. However, standard auto-regressive ML emulators often suffer from error accumulation over long horizons and struggle to capture the stochasticity of complex physical systems. In this paper, we propose Kastor, a comprehensive methodology to adapt a deterministic physics foundation model into a highly efficient and accurate generative surrogate. First, we introduce a two-stage inference scheme that combines a large-stride causal auto-regressive model with a non-causal temporal super-resolution network, significantly reducing error accumulation while minimizing computational cost. Second, we present Mean prediction regularization (MPR), a novel training objective that constrains the generative model to predict the deterministic distribution mean under null noise conditioning. This regularization dramatically improves the performance and stability of both Functional Generative Networks (FGN) and diffusion-based emulators. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating spatial gradient matching improves the accuracy and physical fidelity of the simulations as measured by power spectrum density. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulation datasets of the benchmark The Well show that with these components, our model outperforms competing methods in forecasting accuracy, spectral consistency, and computational efficiency. Our model achieves a 42.9% average reduction in forecasting compared to our reference based on the Walrus finetuning methodology, and outperforms Walrus for 8 out of 10 datasets on variance-normalized RMSE (VRMSE).
Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise. For such systems, deterministic neural surrogates fail to capture statistical measures and forecast uncertainty. We introduce TRIE, an evaluation framework for stochastic PDE surrogates that asks whether models reproduce invariant measures, provide trustworthy predictive uncertainty, and scale to efficient probabilistic generation. We demonstrate TRIE on two stationary chaotic spatially extended SPDEs, stochastic Kuramoto--Sivashinsky and stochastic Kolmogorov flow, across 11 parameter values. Our evaluation shows that standard pointwise-trained neural surrogates can produce plausible short rollouts while failing to match long-time statistical structure. Approximate uncertainty methods such as Monte Carlo dropout and heteroscedastic Gaussian likelihoods produce stochastic forecasts, but are often miscalibrated and overconfident under temporal and spatial uncertainty diagnostics. Across these criteria, generative models provide the most consistent performance, accurately capturing invariant measure statistics and achieving the lowest CRPS in all reported probabilistic settings. Finally, we show that latent generative models with automatic dimension discovery retain much of this statistical fidelity while reducing Kolmogorov inference time by roughly 12×. We release our code and data at https://github.com/scailab/TRIE-SPDE-Bench to support reproducible evaluation of stochastic PDE forecasting models.
Bharat Srikishan, Javier E. Santos, Nikhil Muralidhar +1
Surrogate models of parametric dynamical systems are essential for many-query and real-time predictions in engineering applications such as design optimization and digital twins. However, generating high-fidelity (HF) training data over a broad range of parameters and operating conditions remains computationally expensive. To address this challenge, we propose a Bayesian multi-fidelity Laplace neural operator (MF-LNO) for uncertainty-aware active learning of oscillatory parametric PDEs. Specifically, the proposed Bayesian MF-LNO iteratively calibrates the discrepancy between low- and high-fidelity data, where predictive uncertainty guides the adaptive acquisition of informative HF trajectories. Such predictive uncertainty is quantified via replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (reSGLD), whose broad posterior exploration enables uncertainty to serve as an error indicator for adaptive HF sample acquisition. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz system, Duffing oscillator, and beam dynamics demonstrate that uncertainty-guided HF sample acquisition consistently outperforms random sampling, while the proposed Bayesian MF-LNO achieves higher prediction accuracy than MF-DeepONet with predictive uncertainty quantification. These results demonstrate that Bayesian multi-fidelity LNOs, combined with uncertainty-guided active learning, provide a data-efficient framework for operator learning in engineering dynamical systems.