PLUME: Probabilistic Latent Unified World Modeling and Parameter Estimation for Multi-Finger Manipulation

A learned world model provides a powerful physical intuition for evaluating future states. But its effectiveness in continuous control also depends critically on how candidate actions are generated for model-based planning. Rather than solely asking how accurately a model can simulate the future, we ask: which candidate actions are worth evaluating in the first place? Existing planners typically search arbitrarily or use expert demonstrations only to initialize a sampling mean, discarding the expert's state-conditioned confidence. Properly guiding this search requires a robust action prior, yet current approaches often rely on independent visual encoders or large-scale VLMs to obtain one. We argue that this architectural bloat is unnecessary: the exact same data - and the learned representations of the world model itself - inherently encode the agent's action intuition. We introduce PRISM, a task-agnostic framework that extracts both from a single dataset while maintaining strict architectural simplicity. Building on a standard JEPA-style latent world model, PRISM attaches a lightweight MLP directly to its frozen encoder to predict a state-conditioned Gaussian prior. At plan time, PRISM fuses this prior into the planner's sampling distribution via a precision-weighted Product-of-Gaussians update. This parameter-free, closed-form integration steers the sampling process, making the prior confident where it is and ceding control where it is not. PRISM improves success rates by 35 percentage points over vanilla world-model-based MPC on Cube and 32 percentage points on PushT, without introducing significant inference overhead.

Planning with a learned latent world model is a promising route to control from raw pixels, but a strong world model alone is not enough. We show this experimentally: even with a perfect world model (operationalized by replacing the learned forward predictor with an idealized rollout of the true environment dynamics), a finite-budget sample-based planner still fails on some tasks, indicating that the bottleneck can lie in search rather than in world-model accuracy. Motivated by this gap, we propose IMWM (Intuition Model + World Model), which pairs the world model with an intuition model trained from demonstrations to recognize promising actions. The two models collaborate through three lightweight components: (i) Retrieval Initialization, which initializes the planner's action proposal from a retrieved demonstration; (ii) Hybrid Cost, which combines the intuition score with the world-model rollout cost; and (iii) a Reliability Gate, which adjusts how much the planner trusts intuition in each setting. Across four pixel-based goal-reaching tasks (Two-Room, Reacher, Push-T, and OGBench-Cube), IMWM has higher mean success than the world-model-only planner on all four, with the largest gains on Two-Room (99.2%, +11.5 percentage points) and OGBench-Cube (94.7%, +28.5 percentage points).

The potential impacts of world models (WMs, i.e., learned simulators) on robotics are far-reaching -- policy evaluation, policy improvement, and test-time planning -- all with limited real-world interaction. To unlock these downstream capabilities, a WM needs to jointly satisfy three desiderata: $\textit{(i)}$ fidelity (i.e., producing simulated trajectories that correlate with reality), $\textit{(ii)}$ consistency (i.e., producing simulated trajectories that are coherent over long horizons), and $\textit{(iii)}$ efficiency (i.e., producing simulated trajectories quickly). We propose WEAVER (World Estimation Across Views for Embodied Reasoning): a WM architecture that simultaneously achieves all three desiderata, providing state-of-the-art results on robotic manipulation tasks. WEAVER is a multi-view WM trained to predict future latents and reward values via a flow-matching loss. We distill the key design decisions across model architecture, memory, and prediction objectives required to unlock the kinds of long-horizon dynamic manipulation tasks that have confounded prior world modeling approaches. We apply WEAVER in robotic hardware, demonstrating its effectiveness at policy evaluation ($ρ$=0.870 correlation with real-world success rate), policy improvement (real-world success rate improvement of $38\%$ on top of the $π_{0.5}$ robot foundation model), and test-time planning (real-world success rate improvement of $14\%$ with a $5-10\times$ speedup over prior WMs). WEAVER also demonstrates better performance than prior WMs when evaluated on out-of-distribution scenarios. Code, models, and videos at: https://arnavkj1995.github.io/WEAVER/ .