Token Complexity Theory for AI-Augmented Computing

The wide adoption of AI agents in complex human workflows is driving rapid growth in LLM token consumption. When agents are deployed on tasks that require a significant amount of tokens, three questions naturally arise: (1) Where do AI agents spend the tokens? (2) Which models are more token-efficient? and (3) Can agents predict their token usage before task execution? In this paper, we present the first systematic study of token consumption patterns in agentic coding tasks. We analyze trajectories from eight frontier LLMs on SWE-bench Verified and evaluate models' ability to predict their own token costs before task execution. We find that: (1) agentic tasks are uniquely expensive, consuming 1000x more tokens than code reasoning and code chat, with input tokens rather than output tokens driving the overall cost; (2) token usage is highly variable and inherently stochastic: runs on the same task can differ by up to 30x in total tokens, and higher token usage does not translate into higher accuracy; instead, accuracy often peaks at intermediate cost and saturates at higher costs; (3) models vary substantially in token efficiency: on the same tasks, Kimi-K2 and Claude-Sonnet-4.5, on average, consume over 1.5 million more tokens than GPT-5; (4) task difficulty rated by human experts only weakly aligns with actual token costs, revealing a fundamental gap between human-perceived complexity and the computational effort agents actually expend; and (5) frontier models fail to accurately predict their own token usage (with weak-to-moderate correlations, up to 0.39) and systematically underestimate real token costs. Our study offers new insights into the economics of AI agents and can inspire future research in this direction.

This paper extends the stochastic-oracle model of AI-augmented computing to include agentic oracles. Unlike a stationary stochastic oracle, which responds to the same query according to a fixed response distribution across calls, an agentic oracle can pursue a goal autonomously and may access an environment containing task-relevant resources. These capabilities affect both response distributions and token costs beyond what is visible at the query-response interface. We develop a framework for analyzing token costs in Stochastic-Oracle Turing Machines (SOTMs) that compute with agentic oracles. Each call has an \emph{orchestration token cost}, visible to the caller at the query-response interface, and an \emph{agentic token cost}, incurred by internal operations not exposed to the caller. We show that an SOTM computing with an agentic oracle that can retain intermediate state can have token-cost advantages over SOTMs using stationary stochastic oracles when solving the same task at the same quality level, both with and without environment access. We also investigate goal-loss risk, including how internal dispatch ordering can reduce exposure to irreversible actions. We provide a goal-loss avoidance criterion, derive progress--retry--goal-loss formulas, establish goal-depth lower bounds on token complexity, characterize token complexity when the probability of goal loss is zero, and show that goal-loss risk can impose an upper bound on the achievable quality of a task involving environment updates.

Token economics has emerged as a useful lens for understanding resource allocation, value creation, and pricing in large language model systems. While recent work has increasingly treated tokens as economic primitives, there remains a substantial gap between high-level economic theory and the computational realities of modern AI infrastructure. This paper identifies and analyzes the key computational challenges that arise when token-economic principles are implemented in real-time inference systems. We argue that computational feasibility is not merely one dimension of token economics, but its governing constraint: these challenges are driven by fundamental tensions among fine-grained valuation, low-latency execution, and allocation optimality under uncertainty. To structure this problem space, we introduce the notion of \textbf{Computational Token Economics} and propose the \textbf{Token Economics Trilemma} -- a conditional no-free-lunch principle that captures the inherent trade-offs among granularity, real-time performance, and optimality. We further categorize the main technical challenges into three areas: real-time value accounting, constrained resource allocation, and economic-aware system architecture. Rather than presenting a complete solution, this paper aims to define a research agenda for bridging token economics and AI system design, highlighting open problems at the intersection of computational economics, machine learning systems, and AI infrastructure.