Vision-language models (VLMs) are playing an increasingly important role across multiple domains. In many applications, such as robotics, it is crucial to quantify the uncertainty in the output of these models. } We develop FUSE, a probabilistic framework for capturing two complementary sources of uncertainty in vision-language modeling: (i) aleatoric embedding-level uncertainty derived from input data vision-language ambiguity, and (ii) epistemic model-level uncertainty estimated from the semantic response diversity of VLMs. Our approach formulates a Bayesian fusion mechanism that analytically combines these uncertainty sources to produce a scalar measure of uncertainty. This measure can be used to reliably predict the model's output correctness for downstream applications. We demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines and achieves SOTA uncertainty calibration.
Vision-language models can produce confident answers on visually ambiguous inputs, resulting in biased predictions. Common entropy-based methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE), rely on output diversity. Yet our analysis shows that overconfident visual embeddings suppress output diversity under stochastic decoding, causing SE to underestimate uncertainty in such cases. Recent methods instead probe output diversity through input perturbations, including textual paraphrasing or joint text-image perturbations, and show improved performance. We study these approaches and reveals that the resulting variability is often dominated by textual changes rather than visual evidence, causing uncertainty estimates to reflect prompt sensitivity rather than visual ambiguity. We therefore propose Visual Semantic Entropy (VSE), which perturbs only the image to probe nearby visual variations while keeping the text query fixed. VSE measures uncertainty by clustering generated answers into semantic prototypes and computing the mass-weighted dispersion among them. Extensive evaluation across five modern vision-language models and five diverse VQA benchmarks demonstrates that VSE effectively captures visual ambiguity, establishing a new state-of-the-art for VLM uncertainty estimation.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) remains a critical challenge in Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) for reliable predictions and real-world deployment. However, most existing methods are adapted from the LLM literature and primarily focus on the language modality, leaving the contribution of visual information to LVLM uncertainty largely underexplored. In this paper, we investigate how LVLMs process visual information and whether this process can be used to improve uncertainty estimation. By analyzing hidden representations after the integration of visual features during the generation process, we observe that high-confidence predictions rely more heavily on visual content than uncertain ones. Building on this insight, we propose Visual-Grounded Token UQ (VIG-TUQ), a training-free framework that explicitly incorporates visual grounding into uncertainty estimation by weighting token-level language uncertainty with visual grounding scores. We evaluate VIG-TUQ on multiple datasets and across diverse LVLM architectures, including early-fusion, late-fusion, and native-fusion models. Results indicate that our method often improves upon existing token-level uncertainty approaches. Code and data will be made available upon acceptance.
Vision-language models (VLMs) perform well on visual question answering with high-quality images but struggle when questions require knowledge beyond what is clearly and directly visible. In such settings, uncertainty quantification should not only indicate whether the model is likely to fail but also diagnose why it is uncertain, across dimensions such as perception, entity recognition, and knowledge retrieval. While prior work has focused on individual failure modes in isolation or treated incorrect answers as monolithic failures, we propose a unified framework for disentangling these failure modes and investigate whether pre-generation signals can predict these failure sources. Across a range of datasets and model families, we find a consistent pattern in VLM errors: some failures arise from visual or recognition bottlenecks, while others persist after the relevant entity is identified. Our main finding is that these failure sources can be predicted before decoding: recognition-related failures are best captured by visual-token representations, while failures that remain after recognition are better captured by prompt-conditioned hidden states. This pre-generation signal enables efficient failure-source prediction before the model produces an answer, allowing uncertain cases to be routed to targeted interventions such as image repair, entity recognition support, or external retrieval.