Attribute Inference from Interactive Targeted Ads

Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal decision problem under the mentioned signal losses. Given a randomized experiment and an ambiguity set for privacy-induced degradation, the framework projects the observation-compatible fiber of clean/unfiltered experimental worlds onto the incrementality functional and returns certified, rejected, and unresolved decisions. The main result gives a sharp decision frontier. Reports outside the frontier support uniformly valid certification or rejection, whereas reports inside it contain too little information for any method to uniformly distinguish above-threshold incrementality from non-incrementality. Supporting results give finite-sample certification, sample-complexity guarantees, a minimax lower bound showing that signal loss reduces effective information, and a reporting-granularity tradeoff. On 2.0M Criteo Uplift rows and the 64K-row Hillstrom email experiment, clean conversion lift is positive in both datasets, with lifts 0.00112 and 0.00495, respectively. Population certification survives mild degradation in Criteo and severe degradation in Hillstrom, while all considered finite-sample stress settings in both datasets remain unresolved after simultaneous uncertainty and reporting noise are included. Overall, the research contributes a decision-theoretic layer for privacy-aware incrementality measurement whose output is the strongest causal-claim justified by degraded ads signals.

Theoretical and applied research into privacy encompasses an incredibly broad swathe of differing approaches, emphases and aims. This work introduces a novel quantitative notion of privacy that is both contextual and specific. Building on and extending ideas from statistical disclosure control and differential privacy, our aim is to model the implications of a disclosure decision in an adversarial setting. Our definition relies on concepts inherent to standard Bayesian decision theory, while departing from them in several important respects. In particular, (i) inference about the data itself becomes meaningful and (ii) the party controlling the release of sensitive information should make disclosure decisions from the prior viewpoint, rather than conditional on the data, which is a feature shared with Bayesian design. Illuminating toy examples are exploited towards highlighting the specificities of the method.

Sensitive attributes such as age, income, and occupation can be inferred from user-generated content by aggregating indirect cues across many ordinary posts. LLM-based profilers can perform this aggregation automatically and with high accuracy, which makes large-scale personal attribute inference a major privacy threat. Existing LLM-based profilers, however, offer limited insight into which specific posts, concepts, and relationships made an inference possible, which is key to targeted privacy mitigation, i.e., redacting or rewriting only the few posts that actually leak an attribute, rather than perturbing entire histories. We introduce GraphProfiler, an auditable LLM-based profiler that represents each user's post history as a source-linked personal knowledge graph where nodes and edges trace back to the originating post and resolves attribute predictions to cited graph records and source texts. GraphProfiler reaches 86.7% attack success rate on the eight-attribute SynthPAI benchmark, within two points of strong text-only baselines, and 84.6% on PANDORA, while citing supporting evidence for over 98% of predictions. Our controlled ablation experiments provide evidence that the cited posts contribute to attack success, as removing them reduces the attack success rate substantially more than removing an equal number of random posts.