Abstract
The signature transform is a principled feature map for continuous-time paths, valued for its uniqueness and universality. Recovering a path from its truncated signature is, however, structurally ill-posed because the truncated signature map is not injective. We therefore reframe truncated signature inversion as a probabilistic problem -- learning the conditional distribution of a path given its truncated signature -- and adopt a signature-conditioned flow matching model as a practical estimator. This probabilistic formulation elucidates the fundamental difficulty of inversion: Bayes reconstruction error quantifies the irreducible uncertainty remaining after conditioning on a statistic. We derive the Bayes-optimal error under linear statistics, obtaining a closed form for log-GBM and numerically tractable formulas for log-fBM and OU, yielding a concrete theoretical baseline for model validation. This baseline upper-bounds the Bayes error under truncated-signature conditioning, since truncated signatures provide richer information than linear statistics. Experiments show that empirical reconstruction errors under linear-statistics conditioning faithfully align with the theory-derived baseline, while errors decrease when the statistic is replaced with truncated signatures. Moreover, generated paths faithfully recover the conditioning signature while preserving key distributional and temporal structures, indicating that the estimator is well-calibrated to the target conditional distribution. Together, these results establish a well-posed probabilistic framework for truncated-signature inversion, with applicability demonstrated on real financial data beyond the parametric process families covered by theory.
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Jul 9, 2025stat.ML
We propose Path Signatures Logistic Regression (PSLR), a semi-parametric framework for classifying vector-valued functional data with scalar covariates. Classical functional logistic regression models rely on linear assumptions and fixed basis expansions, which limit flexibility and degrade performance under irregular sampling. PSLR leverages the well-established properties of path signatures - basis-free representation, cross-channel dependency capture, and robustness to sampling irregularity - as an enabling tool. The key novelty, however, lies in two distinctive contributions: (i) a semi-parametric additive structure that preserves interpretable linear effects for scalar covariates, and (ii) a fully data-driven procedure for adaptively selecting the signature truncation order via a penalized empirical risk criterion. This selection mechanism is supported by rigorous non-asymptotic guarantees, including the existence of an optimal truncation order, its consistent estimation from finite samples, convergence rates for the classifier risk, a finite computable search bound, and an error propagation framework that formally quantifies PSLR's robustness under irregular sampling. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PSLR with adaptive order selection consistently outperforms traditional functional classifiers and fixed-order signature baselines in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability. Our results highlight the practical and theoretical value of integrating rough path theory with adaptive model complexity control.
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Algebraic statistics characterizes statistical models through polynomial constraints, but it has mainly been used for analytically specified model classes. This paper studies the inverse problem: identifying probabilistic structure from vanishing binomials observed in empirical probability tensors. We treat the vanishing binomials of a toric model as its algebraic signature, and turn the ideal-variety correspondence of algebraic statistics into an operational procedure for structural learning that identifies a model by signature matching without parameter estimation. By restricting attention to a computationally tractable class of configuration matrices, which we call {\it the Kronecker-stack class}, we make these signatures explicitly enumerable. Within this class we define minimum invariant constraint (MIC) as the atomic unit characterizing each signature and generalizing the notion of independence. We tested this approach employing MICs on synthetic data as well as on corpus-scale real language data. The results suggested the utility of the method, revealing that the identified rank-one structures correspond to interpretable sets of words. These results open up a new avenue for applying algebraic statistics to computational linguistics.
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