Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification
Authors: Arthur Chagas, Arthur Buzelin, Yan Aquino, Pedro Bento, Gisele L. Pappa, Wagner Meira, Cristiano Arbex Valle
Organizations: Department of Computer Science (DCC), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
Abstract
Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions. This paper proposes a representation--calibration decomposition for temporal classification. We keep a trained native classifier frozen and separate two inference-time interventions: a conservative residual multi-scale branch that adds auxiliary logits to the native prediction, and a post-hoc branch-aware calibrator that recombines native and residual evidence at decision time. This design distinguishes missing temporal evidence from underused decision-level evidence without retraining the backbone. Across FI-2010, PTB-XL, UCI-HAR, MHEALTH, and HARTH, we find that gains are strongly regime-dependent. Residual multi-scale evidence is most useful in noisy or representation-limited settings, especially short-horizon FI-2010 and weaker recurrent backbones, while branch-aware calibration helps when native and auxiliary logits contain complementary evidence not fully exploited by the raw decision rule. Near-saturated settings show limited gains from either intervention. These results suggest that temporal classification should be understood not only as representation learning, but also as the problem of trusting, combining, and calibrating evidence from multiple views.
Temporal relation classification is the task of determining the temporal relation between pairs of temporal entities in a text. Despite recent advancements in natural language processing, temporal relation classification remains a considerable challenge. Early attempts framed this task using a comprehensive set of temporal relations between events and temporal expressions. However, due to the task complexity, datasets have been progressively simplified, leading recent approaches to focus on the relations between event pairs and to use only a subset of relations. In this work, we revisit the broader goal of classifying interval relations between temporal entities by considering the full set of relations that can hold between two time intervals. The proposed approach, Interval from Point, involves first classifying the point relations between the endpoints of the temporal entities and then decoding these point relations into an interval relation. Evaluation on the TempEval-3 dataset shows that this approach can yield effective results, achieving a temporal awareness score of 70.1 percent, a new state-of-the-art on this benchmark.
Time introduces fundamental challenges in model development and deployment: models are usually trained on historical data while deployed on future data where semantic distributions and domain knowledge may evolve. Unfortunately, existing studies either overlook temporal shifts or hardly capture rich shifting patterns of both semantic and knowledge. We develop Knowledge-driven Augmentation and Retrieval for Integrative Temporal Adaptation (KARITA) to capture diverse temporal shifts (e.g., uncertainty and feature shift), construct and integrate rich knowledge sources (e.g., medical ontology like MeSH), and leverage shifting insights for selecting-retrieval augmented learning. We evaluate KARITA on classification tasks across multiple domains, clinical, legal, and scientific corpora, demonstrating consistent improvements across multiple domains with temporal adaptation. Our results show that knowledge integration can be more critical and effective in temporal augmentation and learning.
In this paper, we propose the first VLMagentic reasoning framework for few-shot multimodal Time Series Classification (MarsTSC), which introduces a self-evolving knowledge bank as a dynamic context iteratively refined via reflective agentic reasoning. The framework comprises three collaborative roles: i) Generator conducts reliable classification via reasoning; ii) Reflector diagnoses the root causes of reasoning errors to yield discriminative insights targeting the temporal features overlooked by Generator; iii) Modifier applies verified updates to the knowledge bank to prevent context collapse. We further introduce a test-time update strategy to enable cautious, continuous knowledge bank refinement to mitigate few-shot bias and distribution shift. Extensive experiments across 12 mainstream time series benchmarks demonstrate that MarsTSC delivers substantial and consistent performance gains across 6 VLM backbones, outperforming both classical and foundation model-based time series baselines under few-shot conditions, while producing interpretable rationales that ground each classification decision in human-readable feature evidence.