LLM-Powered Virtual Population for Demand Simulation and Pricing

Unlike Business-to-Consumer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Amazon), inexperienced individual sellers on Consumer-to-Consumer platforms (e.g., eBay) often face significant challenges in setting prices for their second-hand products efficiently. Therefore, numerous studies have been proposed for automating price prediction. However, most of them are based on static regression models, which suffer from poor generalization performance and fail to capture market dynamics (e.g., the price of a used iPhone decreases over time). Inspired by recent breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce LLP, the first LLM-based generative framework for second-hand product pricing. LLP first retrieves similar products to better align with the dynamic market change. Afterwards, it leverages the LLMs' nuanced understanding of key pricing information in free-form text to generate accurate price suggestions. To strengthen the LLMs' domain reasoning over retrieved products, we apply a two-stage optimization, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by group relative policy optimization (GRPO), on a dataset built via bidirectional reasoning. Moreover, LLP employs a confidence-based filtering mechanism to reject unreliable price suggestions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LLP substantially surpasses existing methods while generalizing well to unseen categories. We have successfully deployed LLP on Xianyu\footnote{Xianyu is China's largest second-hand e-commerce platform.}, significantly outperforming the previous pricing method. Under the same 30% product coverage, it raises the static adoption rate (SAR) from 40% to 72%, and maintains a strong SAR of 47% even at 90% recall.

Personalized pricing negotiations are a challenging testbed for LLM agents because successful interaction does not guarantee profitable decision making. A seller may produce valid actions and close many deals while still pricing poorly when buyer willingness to pay and bargaining traits remain hidden. This paper presents PrefBench, a simulator-based benchmark for hidden-preference personalized pricing negotiations. Each episode pairs a simulated buyer with a fixed vehicle-customization bundle; the seller observes public persona descriptors, bundle information, and negotiation history, while latent buyer variables govern valuation, patience, counter-offer behavior, and walkaway decisions. PrefBench evaluates this setting through an LLM-facing state-summary protocol that constrains agents to return strict JSON actions under a fixed hidden-information boundary. We evaluate zero-shot LLM sellers against heuristic references over 7,500 episodes. The tested LLMs follow the protocol reliably and achieve deal rates above 0.99, but their seller-profit outcomes remain weak: the best LLM average profit is only slightly above the random baseline and far below a simple concession heuristic under the same episode stream. These results show that structured action compliance and agreement-seeking behavior can coexist with weak profit-sensitive bargaining. PrefBench provides a controlled benchmark for evaluating pricing-agent behavior under hidden buyer preferences.

LLMs are increasingly used as ``digital consumers'' to simulate public opinion, pre-test marketing decisions, and anticipate audience response. However, existing evaluations rarely ask whether a model can reconstruct the concrete reaction patterns that real consumers surface in public discourse. We introduce ConsumerSimBench, a benchmark built from 1,553 real Chinese social-media topics and 23,122 atomic, rule-audited criteria spanning four reaction families. Rather than scoring open-ended generations with a holistic preference judge, ConsumerSimBench decomposes each task into auditable yes-no decisions over concrete reaction points, raising three-judge agreement from 65.8% to 92.1% with 98.4% agreement between pointwise judge decisions and human-majority labels. Across 13 frontier generators, the strongest model, Gemini-3.1-Pro, covers only 47.8% of real reaction criteria, while GPT-5.2 and Claude-4.6 trail far behind despite their strength on technical benchmarks. The failures reveal a sharp gap between technical-benchmark performance and socially grounded consumer intuition. A direct structured reasoning prompt decreases coverage, while a generate--reflect multi-agent pipeline improves MiMo-V2.5-Pro from 32.9% to 37.6% on a subset. ConsumerSimBench reframes consumer simulation as a forecasting problem over real public-discourse reactions, showing that frontier LLMs remain far from reliably predicting what consumers will actually care about in high-context Chinese consumer discourse.