Geometry-Aware Post-Hoc Uncertainty Quantification in Operator Learning
Authors: Oriol Vendrell-Gallart, Nima Negarandeh, Ramin Bostanabad
Organizations: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92617
Abstract
Neural operators provide fast surrogates for PDEs but their deterministic predictions limit their use in tasks requiring uncertainty quantification (UQ), especially under geometric variability. Existing approaches primarily model uncertainty in network parameters, largely overlooking the geometry-aware representations learned by the operator itself. We propose REEF-GP (Residual on Embedded Features Gaussian Process), a post-hoc UQ framework that fits a GP to the residuals of a frozen neural operator whose internal embeddings define the kernel feature space. Rather than learning a separate feature map, REEF-GP adapts the operator's intrinsic coordinate-feature representations to construct geometry-aware uncertainties. To ensure stability and scalability on unstructured domains, REEF-GP incorporates spectral-normalized projections, heteroscedastic geometry-aware noise, and efficient subset-based training that avoids restrictive low-rank approximations. Across five PDE benchmarks with varying geometries, REEF-GP preserves predictive accuracy while achieving calibrated uncertainty estimates competitive with deep ensembles but at a fraction of their cost. Our approach remains robust under geometric distribution shift, with uncertainty concentrating in physically meaningful regions (e.g., shock fronts). Our results demonstrate that accurate and scalable post-hoc UQ for neural operators can be achieved directly in their learned feature space, offering a practical alternative to parameter-centric approaches.
Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers. However, deploying these models in safety-critical engineering applications -- such as thermal management of electronic components and battery systems -- requires not only accurate point predictions but also rigorous uncertainty guarantees. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for neural operators, including Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles, provide only relative uncertainty estimates without formal coverage guarantees. In this work, we propose the first application of split conformal prediction to neural operator-based physics simulation, providing distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees. We further introduce a normalized conformal prediction scheme that leverages MC Dropout uncertainty to produce adaptive-width intervals, yielding tighter intervals in regions of low uncertainty and wider intervals where the model is less certain. Full-scale experiments (33.7M parameters, 800 training samples, 5 ensemble members, NVIDIA V100) on steady-state heat conduction benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves 89.1% empirical coverage at the target level of alpha=0.1, while producing spatially adaptive prediction intervals that reflect the underlying physical uncertainty structure. We also provide an uncertainty decomposition framework that separates epistemic uncertainty (68% of total) from aleatoric uncertainty (32% of total), offering actionable guidance for data collection and model improvement. Our method is implemented in an open-source platform with REST API endpoints and interactive 3D visualization.
Repeatedly solving parametric PDEs is essential for uncertainty quantification, design optimization and inverse problems, but conventional neural operators require expensive non-convex training. We introduce PCA--RaNN, a randomized latent neural operator that combines PCA-based dimensionality reduction with fixed random features and a closed-form least-squares readout. It recasts latent operator learning as fixed-feature linear regression, reducing training time by one to three orders of magnitude across benchmarks while maintaining competitive accuracy. We introduce an energy-matched scaling rule and a lightweight two-parameter BFGS refinement to correct suboptimal feature scales. Ensemble averaging reduces predictive variance. On Burgers, Darcy, Navier--Stokes and backward heat equation benchmarks, PCA--RaNN provides a favorable speed--accuracy trade-off against operator-learning baselines. The ensemble supports split-conformal prediction intervals, and the linear readout enables rapid online adaptation via recursive least squares without retraining hidden features. This provides an efficient, uncertainty-aware surrogate for many-query scientific workflows.
Neural operators have shown strong potential for learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs). However, long-horizon autoregressive prediction remains challenging: local errors accumulate as spectral inconsistency, phase misalignment, or mean drift. Existing methods mainly improve state representations and operator backbones, while leaving the repeatedly applied latent transition increment weakly structured, allowing spectral errors and unstable channel couplings to accumulate during rollout. To address these issues, we propose a geometry-aware incremental neural operator (GeoIncNO) for stable long-horizon PDE prediction. GeoIncNO predicts latent increments for residual advancement and uses lightweight low-rank projectors to regulate channel coupling within active frequency bands derived from the increment spectral energy distribution. To reduce physical-space reconstruction errors, GeoIncNO further introduces a mean--fluctuation decoupled reconstruction mechanism, where stable mean structures and dynamic fluctuations are fused separately, and phase correction is applied only to the zero-mean fluctuation component. Extensive experiments on six PDE benchmarks, covering 1D, 2D, and 3D dynamical systems, show that GeoIncNO achieves consistently strong prediction accuracy, improved rollout stability, and better spectral fidelity compared with competitive neural-operator baselines.