Authors: Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack Lee
Organizations: Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, USA · Graduate School of Data Science Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea
Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i.e., what would have happened had reality been different, even when no data of this unrealized reality is currently available. Reinforcement learning provides methods to learn a policy that optimizes a specific measure (e.g., reward, regret) when the agent is deployed in an environment and pursues an exploratory, trial-and-error approach. These two disciplines have evolved independently and with virtually no interaction between them. We note that they operate over different aspects of the same building block, counterfactual relations, which makes them umbilically connected. Based on these observations, novel learning opportunities arise when this connection is explicitly acknowledged and mathematized. To realize this potential, we note that any environment where the RL agent is deployed can be decomposed as a collection of autonomous mechanisms with different causal invariances, parsimoniously modeled as a structural causal model; any standard RL setting implicitly encodes such a model. This formalization allows us to put under a unifying treatment different modes of learning, including online, off-policy, and causal calculus learning, which appear unrelated in the literature. However, these modalities are not exhaustive: we introduce several natural and pervasive classes of learning settings that entail novel dimensions of analysis. Specifically, we introduce and discuss through causal lenses generalized policy learning, where to intervene, imitation learning, and counterfactual learning. These tasks lead to a broader view of counterfactual learning and suggest great potential for studying causal inference and reinforcement learning side by side, which we call causal reinforcement learning (CRL).
Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) for recovery in autonomous systems lacks causal understanding and generalizes poorly to novel failure scenarios. RL policies often stall in failure states, spending up to 70% of an episode immobilized. Rule-based recovery alone is inadequate, and adding heuristic recovery to a pretrained PPO policy worsens rewards because policies cannot coordinate well with unanticipated interventions. The issue is not missing recovery mechanisms but a lack of policies trained to collaborate with them. We introduce CRRL, a causal-guided RL framework that trains policies to work effectively with rule-based recovery. The recovery detects stalled states and assists the agent. Causal relations from driving logs shape the training signal, teaching the policy to anticipate stalls and adjust actions in recovery contexts. The framework follows MAPE-K, with sensor collection, causal model construction, and hybrid RL policy training corresponding to Monitor, Analyze, and Plan/Execute, respectively. We evaluate CRRL through a four-condition ablation study across three driving scenarios, with 20 episodes per condition. We find that causal training significantly improves reward, distance, and velocity. Moreover, 9 of 20 roundabout episodes required zero recovery intervention, confirming navigation competence. These results show that causal-guided training produces effective RL policies that cooperate with rule-based safety components.
Reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to optimize sequential decisions to maximize population-level benefits over time. However, when deployed in high-stakes settings such as healthcare, RL decisions might systematically restrict some subpopulation's access to valuable services in a manner contrary to the values and goals of stakeholders. Counterfactual fairness (CF) offers a promising framework to address this problem based on causal reasoning. This paper develops a data preprocessing algorithm that, when used in tandem with policy learning, enables CF in RL. Our algorithm relies on a novel quantile distribution mapping method for sequentially estimating the counterfactual states and rewards in the data preprocessing step, subsuming common additivity assumptions used for counterfactual prediction as a special case. We theoretically prove that the per-step level of counterfactual unfairness and infinite-horizon suboptimality gap can be bounded under mild regularity conditions. We also empirically test our algorithm in numerical experiments as well as in application to a real-world interventional digital health dataset.
We consider reinforcement learning in environments with dynamics that undergo an irreversible phase transition governed by a hidden temporal pattern. The agent observes the base state but cannot observe the phase directly. We formalize this problem as a two-phase non-Markovian decision process and introduce Temporal-Causal Inference for Reinforcement Learning (TCIRL), a framework that jointly learns a control policy and infers the hidden temporal cause of the phase transition. TCIRL maintains a hypothesis deterministic finite automaton (DFA) to track what phase is active and refines it via counterexample-driven SAT-based synthesis. We prove that the hypothesis converges almost surely to a DFA recognizing the true cause language on all attainable label sequences, yielding an optimal policy for the original non-Markovian decision process. Experiments on a genetic therapy gridworld and a traffic signal environment show that TCIRL recovers the correct cause DFA and matches the full-information baseline in both domains.