Scaling limit of the Random Language Model

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

We introduce a family of synthetic languages with hierarchical structure -- generated by a broadcast process on trees -- for which the role of context length and reasoning in autoregressive generation can be analyzed precisely. At the heart of our analytic approach is an \emph{exact $k$-gram ansatz} in place of transformers with context length $k$, a substitution we then validate empirically. Using this ansatz we derive explicit asymptotic predictions for distributional statistics of the sequences produced by a trained model, instantiated in two settings. For the \emph{Ising broadcast process} (a soft-constrained language), we prove that the variance of the generated sum scales log-linearly in the context depth and its kurtosis converges to that of a Gaussian -- both deviating from the true language for any sublinear context. For the \emph{coloring broadcast process} (a hard-constrained language) in the freezing regime, bounded-context autoregression produces sequences that, with high probability, are inconsistent with \emph{any} valid coloring of the underlying tree. Together these results imply an $Ω(n)$ lower bound on the context length required to faithfully sample length-$n$ sequences. In contrast, we prove that an autoregressive \emph{reasoning} model with only $Θ(\log n)$ working memory can sample exactly from the true language -- an exponential improvement. We confirm both the lower-bound predictions and the reasoning-based upper bound empirically with transformers trained on the synthetic language; the trained models track our asymptotic predictions quantitatively across a wide range of context sizes.

We propose a statistical-field framework for text generated by large language models (LLMs), treating token embeddings as continuous spin variables on a one-dimensional chain. Defining a susceptibility from the connected two-point correlator and an order parameter from the ensemble-averaged embedding field, we vary the \texttt{softmax} temperature $T$ and observe a sharp susceptibility peak near a characteristic $T_c$ with power-law-like scaling, a concurrent rapid change in the order parameter, and a collapse onto a single semantic direction below $T_c$. The intrinsic dimension estimated by the two nearest neighbor (TwoNN) method independently corroborates these findings, reaching a minimum near $T_c$. Results are robust across model scales (Qwen3: 0.6B--32B) and prompt categories. While the phenomenology closely resembles a continuous phase transition, the non-equilibrium nature of autoregressive generation warrants further investigation. Our framework provides quantitative tools for probing the collective statistical structure of LLM outputs and suggests connections between decoding strategies and critical phenomena.