Physics-Grounded Disentangled Flow Modeling for Brain Disease Progression Trajectory

Forecasting the future anatomy of slow-evolving neurodegenerative diseases could enable earlier, more targeted intervention and improve clinical trial design, but it remains challenging because true progression signals are subtle in longitudinal MRI. In this low-signal regime, transferring modern generative sequence models directly is unreliable: training is dominated by stable baseline anatomy and confounded by dense, sample-specific nuisance variation. We first provide a theoretical analysis that explains these failures through two modes. Identity collapse occurs when optimization is driven toward reproducing the current anatomy, which prevents the model from learning faint temporal change. The continuous interpolation trap arises when standard smooth networks cannot separate localized biological drift from pervasive noise, which leads to spurious changes that diffuse across the volume. To address both issues, we propose Latent Drift, a progressive generative framework that learns change in a compressed semantic representation rather than synthesizing full-resolution anatomy. This design removes pixel-level identity from the prediction target and concentrates model capacity on progression-relevant dynamics. We further apply Finite Scalar Quantization to the learned change representation, which suppresses small, high-frequency nuisance fluctuations while preserving consistent structural drift. Experiments on longitudinal 3D brain MRI show that Latent Drift improves patient-specific neuro-forecasting over diffusion and autoregressive transformer baselines across generative fidelity and clinically relevant evaluation metrics. Project page: \href{https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift}{https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift}.

Accurate longitudinal analysis of brain MRI is often hindered by evolving lesions, which bias automated neuroimaging pipelines. While deep generative models have shown promise in inpainting these lesions, most existing methods operate cross-sectionally or lack 3D anatomical continuity. We present a novel pseudo-3D longitudinal inpainting framework based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). Our approach utilizes multi-channel conditioning to incorporate longitudinal context from distinct visits (t_1, t_2) and extends Region-Aware Diffusion (RAD) to the medical domain, focusing the generative process on pathological regions without altering surrounding healthy tissue. We evaluated our model against state-of-the-art baselines on longitudinal brain MRI from 93 patients. Our model significantly outperforms the leading baseline (FastSurfer-LIT) in terms of perceptual fidelity, reducing the Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity (LPIPS) distance from 0.07 to 0.03 while effectively eliminating inter-slice discontinuities. Furthermore, our model demonstrates high longitudinal stability with a Temporal Fidelity Index of 1.024, closely approaching the ideal value of 1.0 and substantially narrowing the gap compared to LIT's TFI of 1.22. Notably, the RAD mechanism provides a substantial gain in efficiency; our framework achieves an average processing time of 2.53 min per volume, representing approximately 10x speedup over the 24.30 min required by LIT. By leveraging longitudinal priors and region-specific denoising, our framework provides a highly reliable and efficient preprocessing step for the study of progressive neurodegenerative diseases. A derivative dataset consisting of 93 pre-processed scans used for testing will be available upon request after acceptance. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Accurately modeling longitudinal brain MRI progression is crucial for understanding neurodegenerative diseases and predicting individualized structural changes. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, such as Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), often use multi-stage training pipelines with auxiliary conditioning modules but suffer from architectural complexity, suboptimal use of conditional clinical covariates, and limited guarantees of anatomical consistency. We propose Anatomically Guided Latent Diffusion Model (AG-LDM), a segmentation-guided framework that enforces anatomically consistent progression while substantially simplifying the training pipeline. AG-LDM conditions latent diffusion by directly fusing baseline anatomy, noisy follow-up states, and clinical covariates at the input level, a strategy that avoids auxiliary control networks by learning a unified, end-to-end model that represents both anatomy and progression. A lightweight 3D tissue segmentation model (WarpSeg) provides explicit anatomical supervision during both autoencoder fine-tuning and diffusion model training, ensuring consistent brain tissue boundaries and morphometric fidelity. Experiments on 31,713 ADNI longitudinal pairs and zero-shot evaluation on OASIS-3 demonstrate that AG-LDM matches or surpasses more complex diffusion models, achieving highly competitive image quality and 15-20% reduction in volumetric errors in generated images. AG-LDM also exhibits markedly stronger utilization of temporal and clinical covariates (3.5-31.5x higher covariate sensitivity than BrLP) and generates biologically plausible counterfactual trajectories, accurately capturing hallmarks of Alzheimer's progression such as limbic atrophy and ventricular expansion. These results highlight AG-LDM as an efficient, anatomically grounded framework for reliable brain MRI progression modeling.