Can Physician Expertise Improve Machine Learning Identification of Delirium?

Delirium is a common and serious complication in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), associated with increased morbidity, prolonged hospital stays, and higher healthcare costs. Despite its prevalence, early prediction and prevention remain challenging. Environmental factors such as ambient sound and light may influence the onset of delirium, yet they are often overlooked in risk assessments. In this study, we examined whether light intensity and sound pressure levels can independently predict delirium across multiple prediction horizons. We evaluated four efficient sequential neural network models on data collected from 9 ICUs across 309 patients to predict delirium for 10 prediction-window sizes. We reported feature importance and direction of influence using Shapley Additive Explanations analysis. The convolutional model achieved the strongest discrimination, with AUC = 0.80 on sound data and on combined data. Sound features were the dominant predictors overall. Integrating sound with light improved short-term ($<1$ week) prediction, with the combined model assigning the highest risk immediately after the sensing period. These findings suggest that passive ambient sensing, especially sound, can add a clinically meaningful, interpretable signal for delirium risk estimation and offer a practical pathway to enrich multimodal ICU prediction and prevention strategies.

Predictive modeling for clinical decision support requires both strong predictive performance and transparent, auditable, and human-reviewable decision logic. Although deep learning and tree-based ensemble methods can achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature remains a major obstacle to trustworthy clinical deployment. Moreover, clinical prediction often operates under practical constraints, including limited sample sizes, severe class imbalance, and feature evolution arising from changes in diagnostic criteria or clinical documentation practices. We propose Medical Heuristic Learning (MHL), a constrained paradigm for LLM-assisted rule learning. Rather than relying on updates to implicit model weights, MHL integrates statistical probes, medical knowledge probes, initial rule synthesis, and iterative rule optimization to construct an executable rule-based expert system. The resulting rule system is expressed entirely using the native logical and control-flow constructs of a programming language. Valid rule versions are recorded and retained along the search trajectory, making the decision logic explicit, interpretable, and auditable. MHL also supports continual learning by using previously validated rules as a starting point and iteratively revising them in response to updated feature information under data drift or feature evolution. MHL is not tied to any specific programming language. Comprehensive experiments on medical datasets show that MHL achieves predictive performance comparable to that of state-of-the-art methods, performs favorably in small-sample and highly imbalanced settings, and supports the transfer and adaptive revision of validated rules under feature evolution. Overall, these findings suggest that non-gradient-based heuristic systems offer an approach to balancing predictive performance and transparency in clinical decision support.

Speech-based cognitive impairment detection offers a noninvasive, accessible alternative to costly biomarker assays, yet transformer-based models remain clinically uninterpretable. We propose a multi-stage explainability framework that translates black-box transformer predictions into clinically grounded narratives by integrating SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based token attribution, theory-informed linguistic features, and a four-stage LLM reasoning pipeline using LLaMA-3.1-70B-Instruct. Built on the SpeechCARE-Adaptive Gating Network multimodal screening model (F1 = 72.11% on the NIA PREPARE benchmark), the framework maps model outputs to four cognitive-linguistic dimensions, including lexical richness, syntactic complexity, and semantic coherence. Physician evaluation on 70 stratified English samples demonstrated strong alignment with patient-level cognitive profiles, and a System Usability Scale score of 82/100 indicated high potential for clinical workflow integration.