Visual Semantic Entropy: Do Vision Language Models Recognize Visual Ambiguity?

Vision-language models (VLMs) are playing an increasingly important role across multiple domains. In many applications, such as robotics, it is crucial to quantify the uncertainty in the output of these models. } We develop FUSE, a probabilistic framework for capturing two complementary sources of uncertainty in vision-language modeling: (i) aleatoric embedding-level uncertainty derived from input data vision-language ambiguity, and (ii) epistemic model-level uncertainty estimated from the semantic response diversity of VLMs. Our approach formulates a Bayesian fusion mechanism that analytically combines these uncertainty sources to produce a scalar measure of uncertainty. This measure can be used to reliably predict the model's output correctness for downstream applications. We demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines and achieves SOTA uncertainty calibration.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) remains a critical challenge in Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) for reliable predictions and real-world deployment. However, most existing methods are adapted from the LLM literature and primarily focus on the language modality, leaving the contribution of visual information to LVLM uncertainty largely underexplored. In this paper, we investigate how LVLMs process visual information and whether this process can be used to improve uncertainty estimation. By analyzing hidden representations after the integration of visual features during the generation process, we observe that high-confidence predictions rely more heavily on visual content than uncertain ones. Building on this insight, we propose Visual-Grounded Token UQ (VIG-TUQ), a training-free framework that explicitly incorporates visual grounding into uncertainty estimation by weighting token-level language uncertainty with visual grounding scores. We evaluate VIG-TUQ on multiple datasets and across diverse LVLM architectures, including early-fusion, late-fusion, and native-fusion models. Results indicate that our method often improves upon existing token-level uncertainty approaches. Code and data will be made available upon acceptance.

The robustness of Vision Language Models (VLMs) is commonly assessed through output-level invariance, implicitly assuming that stable predictions reflect stable multimodal processing. In this work, we argue that this assumption is insufficient. We introduce a representation-aware and frequency-aware evaluation framework that measures internal embedding drift, spectral sensitivity, and structural smoothness (spatial consistency of vision tokens), alongside standard label-based metrics. Applying this framework to modern VLMs across the SEEDBench, MMMU, and POPE datasets reveals three distinct failure modes. First, models frequently preserve predicted answers while undergoing substantial internal representation drift; for perturbations such as text overlays, this drift approaches the magnitude of inter-image variability, indicating that representations move to regions typically occupied by unrelated inputs despite unchanged outputs. Second, robustness does not improve with scale; larger models achieve higher accuracy but exhibit equal or greater sensitivity, consistent with sharper yet more fragile decision boundaries. Third, we find that perturbations affect tasks differently: they harm reasoning when they disrupt how models combine coarse and fine visual cues, but on the hallucination benchmarks, they can reduce false positives by making models generate more conservative answers.