Uncertainty-aware tree height change regression

Earth Observation regression tasks such as building height, canopy height, and above-ground biomass estimation underpin critical applications in urban planning, forest monitoring, and climate policy, where both accuracy and reliability are critical. Yet most deep learning models yield only deterministic predictions, providing no indication of per-pixel reliability. These regression tasks are inherently challenging due to heterogeneous land surfaces, skewed target distributions, sensor noise, and signal saturation at high target values, making uncertainty (UC) estimation essential for reliable inference. We address this gap by modeling aleatoric uncertainty using year-long Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI time series, proposing two complementary approaches: (i) Gaussian UC, which jointly predicts mean and standard deviation under a Gaussian assumption, and (ii) Quantile UC, which estimates the 10th, 50th, and 90th quantiles to capture asymmetric and heteroscedastic error distributions. Both models are evaluated on three representative EO regression tasks at 10 m spatial resolution. Results show that both approaches match or surpass deterministic benchmarks and existing global products, while delivering well-calibrated, interpretable, and operationally useful confidence estimates. Notably, both models outperform the current 10 m state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware model for canopy height estimation. Our implementation will be available at: https://github.com/RituYadav92/EO-Regression-Uncertainty-Estimation

Accurate estimation of forest height from satellite imagery is essential for applications such as carbon accounting, biodiversity monitoring, and ecosystem management. While recent deep learning approaches provide accurate predictions, they typically do not quantify predictive uncertainty. This limitation is particularly relevant in geospatial settings characterized by sparse supervision and geographic distribution shift. In this work, we investigate Deep Evidential Regression (DER) for forest height estimation on the TreeUQ benchmark, a large-scale dataset designed for the joint estimation of tree count and average tree height at 10 m resolution, based on Sentinel-1/-2 data as well as tree inventory data over the federal state of Bavaria. To account for the extreme label sparsity of the tree inventory data, we introduce a masked evidential loss for dense geospatial prediction. Using a U-Net architecture with multimodal Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 inputs, the proposed approach jointly predicts tree height and associated uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. Experimental results show that DER achieves predictive performance comparable to a deterministic U-Net while additionally providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. These findings demonstrate the potential of evidential learning as an efficient framework for uncertainty-aware forest structure estimation from Earth observation data.

High-resolution mapping of canopy height is essential for forest management and biodiversity monitoring. Although recent studies have led to the advent of deep learning methods using satellite imagery to predict height maps, these approaches often face a trade-off between data accessibility and spatial resolution. To overcome these limitations, we present SERA-H, an end-to-end model combining a super-resolution module (EDSR) and temporal attention encoding (UTAE). Trained under the supervision of high-density LiDAR-derived Canopy Height Models (CHM), our model generates 2.5 m resolution height maps from freely available Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 (10 m) time series data. Evaluated against an open-source benchmark dataset in France, SERA-H, with a MAE of 2.6 m and R2 of 0.82, not only outperforms standard Sentinel-1/2 baselines but also approaches the accuracy of methods based on commercial very high-resolution imagery (e.g., SPOT-6/7), while relying solely on freely available data. These results demonstrate that combining high-resolution ALS supervision with the spatio-temporal information embedded in Sentinel time series enables the reconstruction of spatial detail finer than the native resolution of the input imagery. By approaching the accuracy of costly commercial imagery, SERA-H opens the possibility of mapping temperate forests using publicly available data with high revisit frequency.