Beyond travel mode: urban context shapes active mobility's mental health effects over time
Authors: Shujuan Chen, Yue Li, Ying Jin
Organizations: Martin Centre for Architectural and Urban Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK · Cambridge Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Abstract
Active mobility is widely promoted for sustainable and healthier living, but whether it translates into equitable mental health benefits across individuals and places over time remains unknown. Using causal machine learning and causal deep learning in 264168 UK adults, we find substantial inequalities in individualized effects of active mobility on anxiety, depression, and common mental disorders. These inequalities widen over time and are strongly structured by urban context. For example, anxiety risk at follow-up ranges from a 40.6% reduction to a 10.1% increase across individuals, versus a 10.4% reduction to a 0.1% increase at baseline. Benefits are greatest in greener, safer, less polluted, and less deprived neighborhood environments, with 81.8% of individuals experiencing above-average benefits and mean anxiety risk reduced by 26.4%, versus 10.4% of individuals and 7.4% reduction in the least supportive environments. Urban compact form further modifies these effects through nonlinear interactions with neighborhood environments, amplifying benefits only under supportive conditions. Despite these strong environmental gradients, genetic moderation is negligible. These findings suggest universal active mobility promotion could widen health inequalities if individual and contextual differences are not accounted for.
Physical activity (PA) is widely recognized as protective against mental distress, yet whether this benefit varies systematically across population subgroups remains poorly understood. Using pooled data from ten consecutive annual waves of the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2015-2024; n = 3,242,218), we investigate heterogeneity in the association between leisure-time PA and frequent mental distress (FMD, >=14 days/month) across age groups. Survey-weighted logistic regression reveals a striking age gradient: the adjusted odds ratio for PA ranges from 0.89 among young adults (18-24) to 0.50 among adults aged 55-64, with the protective association strengthening monotonically with age. Temporal analysis across all ten years shows that the young-adult PA effect has been eroding over the past decade, with the 18-24 OR reaching 1.01 (null) in both 2018 and 2024 -- paralleling the deepening youth mental health crisis. Causal Forest via Double Machine Learning independently identifies age as the dominant driver of treatment effect heterogeneity (feature importance = 0.39, 2.5x the next predictor). E-value sensitivity analysis, propensity score overlap checks, placebo tests, and imputation comparisons confirm the robustness of the findings. These results suggest that the well-documented exercise--mental health link may not generalize to the youngest adult population, whose distress appears increasingly driven by stressors that PA alone cannot mitigate.
The 15-minute city promotes access to everyday services within a short walk or bicycle ride, but its relationship with observed mobility remains difficult to quantify. We investigate this relationship in the Paris metropolitan area using mobility trajectories from the NetMob 2025 Data Challenge, enriched with INSEE sociodemographic data and OpenStreetMap points of interest (POIs), yielding approximately 70,000 trip segments after stop-based segmentation and data cleaning. We construct walking- and cycling-based indicators of local service availability and examine their associations with trip duration, transport mode, and short-trip car use. Higher POI availability is associated with less private motorized travel and more active mobility, although this relationship is substantially weaker in the outer agglomeration. Gradient-boosted tree models interpreted with explainable machine-learning methods consistently identify trip purpose, home--work distance, local service availability, vehicle ownership, public-transport subscription, and sociodemographic context as important predictors. For short trips, high POI density is associated with lower car use, while car ownership and driving-licence availability are associated with higher predicted car use; where services are sparse, public-transport subscription is associated with lower predicted car dependence. Finally, explainable AI (XAI) methods are used to examine how feature attributions change under alternative assumed variable orderings. The results are consistent with central assumptions of the 15-minute city while revealing substantial spatial and demographic heterogeneity. They also demonstrate how explainable machine-learning methods can complement accessibility indicators and identify locally relevant hypotheses for urban-mobility policy.
Understanding cyclist preferences for the characteristics of the built environment is important in promoting sustainable urban transportation and active mobility. Despite previous studies on cyclists' route choices, the influence of visual and non-visual factors on these choices for different trip purposes remains unclear; thus, this paper fills this gap through a data-driven case study in Montreal, Canada. Non-visual factors include socioeconomic factors and two-dimensional environments, while visual factors involve visual perception during cycling and are computed using street view images. The study consists of two parts: one part analyzes spatiotemporal information to explore the non-visual factors between the start and end points of cycling trips, and the other part investigates the discrepancies in distributions of these factors between the shortest path and the actual one. The findings reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics that influence active riding choices, such as increased greenery and lower levels of motorization. These insights can inform the planning of street networks and the development of infrastructure to improve the use of active transportation.