Paris as a 15-Minute City: An Explainable AI Perspective
Authors: András J. Molnár, Csaba I. Sidló, Rita Rónai, Domonkos Rózsay
Organizations: Institute for Computer Science and Control, Hungarian Research Network, Hungary
Abstract
The 15-minute city promotes access to everyday services within a short walk or bicycle ride, but its relationship with observed mobility remains difficult to quantify. We investigate this relationship in the Paris metropolitan area using mobility trajectories from the NetMob 2025 Data Challenge, enriched with INSEE sociodemographic data and OpenStreetMap points of interest (POIs), yielding approximately 70,000 trip segments after stop-based segmentation and data cleaning. We construct walking- and cycling-based indicators of local service availability and examine their associations with trip duration, transport mode, and short-trip car use. Higher POI availability is associated with less private motorized travel and more active mobility, although this relationship is substantially weaker in the outer agglomeration. Gradient-boosted tree models interpreted with explainable machine-learning methods consistently identify trip purpose, home--work distance, local service availability, vehicle ownership, public-transport subscription, and sociodemographic context as important predictors. For short trips, high POI density is associated with lower car use, while car ownership and driving-licence availability are associated with higher predicted car use; where services are sparse, public-transport subscription is associated with lower predicted car dependence. Finally, explainable AI (XAI) methods are used to examine how feature attributions change under alternative assumed variable orderings. The results are consistent with central assumptions of the 15-minute city while revealing substantial spatial and demographic heterogeneity. They also demonstrate how explainable machine-learning methods can complement accessibility indicators and identify locally relevant hypotheses for urban-mobility policy.
Human mobility prediction models, which forecast the next location in a user's trajectory, are increasingly deployed in urban analytics, navigation, and personalized services. Yet, little is known about their potential to memorize and expose sensitive user trajectories from training data. While memorization has been extensively studied in language models, mobility prediction poses unique challenges: training sequences encode human behavior at various spatial and temporal scales, creating privacy risks at different granularities. In this paper, we conduct the first systematic audit of memorization in mobility prediction models. While prior work has shown that privacy leaks can arise from such models, we systematically assess and quantify memorization risks at scale. We identify key challenges, including the lack of a randomness space, the multi-scale structure of trajectories, and user-specific behavioral diversity. To address these challenges, we introduce a framework to quantify mobility memorization at different levels of granularity: individual locations, anchor pairs, and subtrajectory segments. We also develop user-grounded reference sets to assess how likely a model is to prefer training data over realistic alternatives. Our evaluation across multiple models and datasets reveals pervasive memorization patterns that correlate with user regularity and increase the risk of data extraction at inference time. Our findings call for mandatory privacy auditing in mobility prediction models.
Anne Josiane Kouam, Hristo Boyadzhiev, Konrad Rieck
Real-time urban governance depends not only on knowing where people are, but on how they move between places, directional flows that could be conventionally resolved by tracking individuals through space, i.e., expensive to sustain and built on traces that are highly unique and readily re-identifiable. Here we show that this directional structure need not be observed to be known: aggregated counts which cities already collect retain enough information to reconstruct the temporal evolution of origin-destination (OD) matrix. Using an uncertainty-aware physics-informed framework, we infer future OD flows from area-level counts alone across twelve mobility datasets from cities in the United States and China, reaching accuracy comparable to models that take historical OD matrices as input. Probabilistic modeling corrects the systematic underestimation of sparse, high-value corridors and yields calibrated predictions consistent with observed flows. Architectures that respect the generation-before-assignment logic of transport planning recover interactions more faithfully, indicating that location-level spatial heterogeneity should be preserved before pairwise interactions are reconstructed. Because inference requires only aggregated observations after training, recovering interactions this way reduces reliance on continuous individual-level tracking, pointing toward a more deployable and less exposure-heavy basis for real-time urban intelligence.
Urban mobility is naturally expressed both as trajectories in space and as natural-language descriptions of travel intent, constraints, and preferences. However, prior work rarely evaluates these two modalities together on the same real-world trajectories: trajectory modeling often stays geometry-centric, while language-centric mobility benchmarks frequently target route planning and tool use rather than fine-grained, verifiable alignment between text and the underlying route. We introduce TrajPrism, a multi-task benchmark for language-trajectory alignment that unifies (i) instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, (ii) language-driven semantic trajectory retrieval, and (iii) trajectory captioning, together with an evaluation protocol that measures trajectory fidelity, retrieval quality, and language groundedness. We construct TrajPrism by pairing real urban trajectories with judge-filtered language annotations generated under a four-dimensional travel-intent taxonomy. The benchmark contains 300K selected trajectories across Porto, San Francisco, and Beijing, yielding 2.1M task instances from three instruction variants, three retrieval queries, and one caption per trajectory. We further develop proof-of-concept models for each task: TrajAnchor for instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, TrajFuse for semantic trajectory retrieval, and TrajRap for trajectory captioning. These models instantiate the proposed tasks and show that geometry-only trajectory baselines leave a large gap on our protocol, especially where language is part of the input-output interface. We release TrajPrism with code and a reproducible annotation pipeline that is designed to be portable across cities, given compatible trajectory inputs and map resources.