Predicting LLM Safety Before Release by Simulating Deployment

Marcus Williams; Hannah Sheahan; Cameron Raymond; Tomek Korbak; Deng Pan; Peilin Yang; Leon Maksin; Ningyi Xie

cs.LGJul 8, 2026

Predicting LLM Safety Before Release by Simulating Deployment

Authors: Marcus Williams, Hannah Sheahan, Cameron Raymond, Tomek Korbak, Deng Pan, Peilin Yang, Leon Maksin, Ningyi Xie, +3 more

Abstract

Pre-deployment safety evaluations aim to inform the downstream risks of releasing a new AI model. Yet most evaluations provide limited evidence about how often undesired model behavior will occur in deployment: they generally have insufficient coverage, are unrepresentative, and are generally recognizable as tests. To address these concerns, we study a simple way to simulate a model deployment: starting from de-identified conversations from a previous model deployment, we hold fixed the initial conversation prefix and regenerate the next response using a candidate model. The resulting responses can then both be audited for novel misalignments and used to estimate the prevalence of model misbehavior before deployment. We evaluate deployment simulation across four GPT-5-series deployments, using registered, outcome-blinded predictions for GPT-5.4 and retrospective analyses of three earlier releases. We find that deployment simulation produces informative estimates of post-deployment misbehavior rates and outperforms baselines based on adversarially selected production data; its evaluation-awareness point estimates were also much closer to production traffic than those from traditional evaluations. We also identify the realism of tool resampling as a central challenge for further improving predictions and share results suggesting that this challenge is surmountable even in complex tool-use settings. Finally, we show that deployment simulation can be seeded from public chat datasets and remain informative about production misbehavior rates, suggesting a path for external researchers to run deployment-grounded evaluations without access to private production logs. Overall, deployment simulation helps evaluators forecast how language models will behave in the real world and supports more quantitative assessment of deployment risk.

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Safety benchmarks are routinely treated as evidence about how a language model will behave once deployed, but this inference is fragile if behavior depends on whether a prompt looks like an evaluation. We define evaluation-context divergence as an observable within-item change in behavior induced by framing a fixed task as an evaluation, a live deployment interaction, or a neutral request, and present a paired-prompt protocol that measures it in open-weight LLMs while controlling for paraphrase variation, benchmark familiarity, and judge framing-sensitivity. Across five instruction-tuned checkpoints from four open-weight families plus a matched OLMo-3 base/instruct ablation (

20

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pp (

p=0.007

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0/20

items inverted) -- while Mistral-Small-3.2, Phi-3.5-mini, and Llama-3.1-8B are deployment-cautious}, with marginal eval-vs-deployment refusal effects of

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70

B model preserves direction with attenuated magnitude, ruling out a simple ``small-model effect that reverses at scale.'' One caveat: the cross-family heterogeneity is judge-dependent. Re-judging with a different-family safety classifier (Llama-Guard-3-8B) preserves the within-OLMo eval-cautious direction but flattens the cross-family contrast, indicating that the two judges operationalize distinct constructs.

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Jun 22, 2026cs.CL

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ρ=-0.79

p<0.001

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