ConRad: Efficient Conformal Prediction for Radiomics

Deep learning models for medical imaging often exhibit overconfidence, creating safety risks in ambiguous diagnostic scenarios. While Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free statistical guarantees, standard methods such as Regularized Adaptive Prediction Sets (RAPS) optimize for average efficiency and can mask severe failures on difficult inputs. We propose an Adaptive Lambda Criterion for RAPS that minimizes the worst-case coverage violation across prediction set size strata. On OrganAMNIST (58,850 abdominal CT images, 11 classes), standard size-optimized RAPS converges to near-deterministic behavior with stratified undercoverage on uncertain samples, while our method achieves 95.72 percent global coverage with average set size 1.09 and at least 90 percent coverage across all strata. Cross-domain validation on PathMNIST (107,180 pathology images, 9 classes) confirms generalizability. Quantitative Grad-CAM analysis (rho = -0.30, p < 1e-22) shows that multi-label predictions correspond to focused attention on anatomically ambiguous regions. These results demonstrate that the proposed method improves reliability while maintaining efficiency, making it suitable for safety-critical medical AI applications.

The Segment Anything Model (SAM) has demonstrated strong generalizability across a variety of segmentation tasks. However, SAM often struggles in situations where the target to be segmented is ambiguous. This poses a problem in medical imaging, where accurate delineation of targets such as tumors is vital, but even expert radiologists can disagree on the appropriate boundary for a target. Addressing this, we propose SARFA (Segment Anything with Radiomic Feature Alignment), a novel framework for improved medical image segmentation. Via probabilistic prompting, SARFA generates a diverse set of plausible masks for each input image and optimizes them with a radiomics-driven training objective based on Fréchet Radiomic Distance (FRD) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). By minimizing the FRD between masked predicted and ground truth regions within each image, SARFA encourages segmentation outputs whose anatomical and textural characteristics align with clinically meaningful ground truth representations, without relying solely on pixel-level overlap. Evaluated on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) benchmarks, SARFA outperforms existing ambiguous segmentation methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of radiomic feature alignment and DPO-style candidate mask ranking as a training objective. Our code is available at https://github.com/tbwa233/SARFA.

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e., narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes accuracy, efficiency, and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence level during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like Directly Optimized Inductive Conformal Regression (DOICR). Experiments on diverse tabular and image datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs relative to retraining-dependent baselines.