LQG solution for POMDP without estimating states: A minimum variance approach

Linear Quadratic Stochastic Optimal Control (LQ-SOC) establishes a fundamental framework for steering noisy dynamical systems and has recently gained renewed interest in the machine learning community. However, current state-of-the-art policy-based methods suffer from prohibitive computational costs and instability due to their heavy reliance on full-trajectory simulation. To overcome these limitations, we propose a paradigm shift toward a value-based approach by revisiting Path Integral Control (PIC). Although standard PIC suffers from the same high-variance bottleneck as policy-based methods, we discover that by truncating and marginalizing the original path integral formulation, we can derive a temporal recursive form of the value function. Building upon this theoretical foundation, we propose the Path Integral Value Matching (PI-VM) algorithm. Specifically, we employ temporal-difference learning to approximate the recursive value dynamics, and further integrate the Girsanov theorem with experience replay to enable off-policy training. We benchmark PI-VM against SOTA policy-based methods across various SOC benchmarks and sampling tasks. Empirical results demonstrate that PI-VM matches SOTA precision with an order-of-magnitude efficiency gain in low-dimensional settings, while effectively mitigating mode collapse in high-dimensional scenarios. Consequently, PI-VM offers a scalable solution for solving complex SOC problems.

Inspired by REINFORCE, we introduce a novel receding-horizon algorithm for the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem with unknown dynamics. Unlike prior methods, our algorithm avoids reliance on two-point gradient estimates while maintaining the same order of sample complexity. Furthermore, it eliminates the restrictive requirement of starting with a stable initial policy, broadening its applicability. Beyond these improvements, we introduce a refined analysis of error propagation through the contraction of the Riccati operator under the Riemannian distance. This refinement leads to a better sample complexity and ensures improved convergence guarantees.

Fundamental limits on the performance of feedback controllers are essential for benchmarking algorithms, guiding sensor selection, and certifying task feasibility -- yet few general-purpose tools exist for computing them. Existing information-theoretic approaches overestimate the information a sensor must provide by evaluating it against the uncontrolled system, producing bounds that degrade precisely when feedback is most valuable. We derive a lower bound on the minimum expected cost of any causal feedback controller under partial observations by applying the Gibbs variational principle to the joint path measure over states and observations. The bound applies to nonlinear, nonholonomic, and hybrid dynamics with unbounded costs and admits a self-consistent refinement: any good controller concentrates the state, which limits the information the sensor can extract, which tightens the bound. The resulting fixed-point equation has a unique solution computable by bisection, and we provide conditions under which the free energy minimization is provably convex, yielding a certifiably correct numerical bound. On a scalar LQG problem the self-consistent bound captures over 80% of the known optimal cost at moderate sensor noise, and on a nonlinear Dubins car tracking problem it remains informative across all noise levels where a bound using the uncontrolled state distribution is vacuous.